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re: If there was ever any doubt that a well-designed bioweapon would be extremely effective

Posted on 3/16/20 at 9:53 am to
Posted by hob
Member since Dec 2017
2406 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 9:53 am to
You don't need a weapon of any type. All you need is fear.

Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6795 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 9:53 am to
quote:

quote:

a mortality rate of under 1%
Are you sure about that?
Yes.

South Korea: 75/8236 = 0.91%
Germany: 13/6612 = 0.19%
Switzerland: 18/2221 = 0.81%
China (not including Hubei): 68/7379 = 0.92%
Sweden: 3/1032 = 0.29%
Belgium: 5/1085 = 0.46%
ETA: Diamond Princess = 7/696 = 1% <-- ON A frickING CRUISE SHIP, which are known for outbreaks. Also throw in the fact that cruise ship demographics trend heavily into the older populations.

The United States is in a better situation to handle this than many of those countries.

We do not have the population density of any of the above.
We do not rely on public transit as heavily as the above.
We do not have the high elderly population percentage that these have.

I can hear the mouthbreathers now. "The US is currently at 1.8%, I need more toilet paper". Well no shite because we have only been testing the most obvious severe cases. Germany has done an excellent job at testing tons of mild cases, and have a low CFR to show for it. When it is all said and done, their CFR of 0.19% is going to be closer to the actual than our 1.9%.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 9:58 am
Posted by LetsgoGamecocks
Member since Sep 2014
2916 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 9:56 am to
quote:

There shouldn’t be anymore. Does this level the playing field? Think if you’re some shithole country and wanted to cripple the superpowers.


This virus and the ensuing panic are the democrats attempt to take the Whitehouse that's it. Just like the 11th hour shenanigans in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing. The press and media are complicit.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53608 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 9:58 am to
quote:

Think if you’re some shithole country and wanted to cripple the superpowers.


And if we ever got wind of it, you’d be nuked.


It’s been long-standing doctrine that the US would regard any chemical or biological weapons usage as the same as nukes, and would respond in kind.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53608 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:01 am to
quote:

I can hear the mouthbreathers now. "The US is currently at 1.8%, I need more toilet paper". Well no shite because we have only been testing the most obvious severe cases. Germany has done an excellent job at testing tons of mild cases, and have a low CFR to show for it. When it is all said and done, their CFR of 0.19% is going to be closer to the actual than our 1.9%.



Extensive testing for mild cases alone doesn’t account for the low CFR.

The big distinction between Germany (and the US) is the number of acute care beds available, which are 3x or more than the other nations listed.
Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6795 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:09 am to
quote:

The big distinction between Germany (and the US) is the number of acute care beds available, which are 3x or more than the other nations listed.
Not sure where you are getting that data.

According to all the data I've seen we have just as many ICU beds(or more depending on the source) as Germany or any other nation.

LINK

LINK

We do have less total hospital beds, however.

Posted by BigDropper
Member since Jul 2009
8856 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:14 am to
quote:

China (not including Hubei): 68/7379 = 0.92%

So, Hubei stats don't matter why?

Could it be because they significantly contract your argument?

Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
91676 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:38 am to
quote:

So, Hubei stats don't matter why? Could it be because they significantly contract your argument?


outliers. I wish everyone had to take statistics to graduate.
Posted by Brazos
Member since Oct 2013
20557 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:51 am to
Lol no the rate will drop drastically.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:58 am to
quote:

And if we ever got wind of it, you’d be nuked.


It’s been long-standing doctrine that the US would regard any chemical or biological weapons usage as the same as nukes, and would respond in kind.

100%. We wouldn't be the only ones, either. Everyone who has a nuke would let slip the dogs of war. WMDs are WMDs.
Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6795 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:58 am to
quote:

So, Hubei stats don't matter why?
Because that was the epicenter. And the other reasons I put in the post

Go buy more toilet paper.
Posted by Revelator
Member since Nov 2008
62313 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:59 am to
At this point, you could simply pretend to have a biological agent and with the placebo effect, half of America would call in sick and buy everything on the store shelves.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51630 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:59 am to
quote:

It won’t discriminate based on the enemy

You clearly haven't watched Designated Survivor.
Posted by Bjorn Cyborg
Member since Sep 2016
36587 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:59 am to
quote:

This will increase drastically


It will decrease rapidly. As more tests are done and more cases verified, then the death rate will drop.

It's simple math.
Posted by shawnlsu
Member since Nov 2011
23682 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:18 am to
quote:

Yeah, we're pretty fricked if something serious is unleashed

Tin foil hat [On] Off
This was a bioweapon that was a test. It wasn't designed to kill, just see how fast it would spread. The next one they will send in a backpack and let it loose in Missouri.
China is the new USSR
Tin foil hat On [Off]
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 11:21 am
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
23946 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:27 am to
quote:

Yeah, we're pretty fricked if something serious is unleashed
yep
quote:

Tin foil hat [On] Off
This was a bioweapon that was a test. It wasn't designed to kill, just see how fast it would spread. The next one they will send in a backpack and let it loose in Missouri.
China is the new USSR
Tin foil hat On [Off]
Let's counter that-

China was aware PRETTY QUICKLY something got loose, since they recognized what it was.
They clamped down FAR HARDER than we have or would be able to do, since they are an authoritarian gov. Like it or not, this is the most efficient means to slow it.

It still spread around the world in a couple of months.
Posted by BigDropper
Member since Jul 2009
8856 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Go buy more toilet paper.

Headed to Downtown Disney...
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
71200 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:29 am to
Bio weapons are a sword without a hilt. They are just as dangerous to wield as they are to defend against.
Posted by BigDropper
Member since Jul 2009
8856 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:20 pm to
You can't just omit outlying observations to satisfy your argument.

Thorough investigation and repeated experiments should be conducted first, then if the data contains significant outliers, you can consider their ommision.

Considering this is the initial statistical analysis, it's a bit premature to delete outliers for the sake of deleting outliers.
Posted by MLCLyons
Member since Nov 2012
4793 posts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

has a mortality rate of under 1%.



it's currently at 1.7% in the US for mortality. Worldwide the mortality rate is 3.9%
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