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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:07 pm to lz2112
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:07 pm to lz2112
quote:
He doesn't really forecast though, he is very gifted at explaining what models are indicating, and why they are indicting those things.
And in today's social media world, that is what we need.
I agree there is tremendous value in gaming out the scenarios. The approach of eliminating possibilities vs trying to predict the right one from jump makes more sense in a field where uncertainty is everywhere.
0
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:09 pm to BigPerm30
quote:
He’s the only dude that I listen to.
There's not much value in that. There are plenty of really good people doing really good things out there. Most of them just don't have the platform Levi does. I like Levi, but even he listens to others.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:10 pm to Klingler7
quote:
Klingler7
lol…why are you getting downvoted?
I mean, you are complementing him.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:14 pm to RummelTiger
I don’t care if I get downvoted. I earned a bachelor of Science degree in meteorology (1990). I know how difficult atmospheric equations and motions are to comprehend. Levi was a player eight or nine years ago. You think the average OT meteorologist understands concepts like heat transfers and potential vorticity ? Levi has accomplished so much and I think he is maybe 25 years old ?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:15 pm to rds dc
First real signs of convective bursts (thunderstorms) with 98L. Models can struggle with convective bursts in a sheared environment and can miss the LLC getting "tugged" downshear. This will be something to watch as 98L tries to organize via these repeated CBs over the next 24-36hrs. Do we start seeing the system sag south of forecast towards the downshear convcetion?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:15 pm to Easye921
quote:
I think the manhunt for the Boston Marathon bomber went over 1000 pages.
There is a thread on the first page with over 1700.
Q and as the plains burn are probably the longest ones. The Bourbon thread is likely the longest active one if you add up all three iterations.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:17 pm to Klingler7
quote:
You think the average OT meteorologist understands concepts like heat transfers and potential vorticity ? Levi has accomplished so much and I think he is maybe 25 years old ?
Most of us are a few steps ahead of that.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:17 pm to rt3
quote:
right now we're in 'don't fret... just keep an eye out' mode
Don’t say that. The doom and gloom wish casters won’t have shite to talk about for the next few days.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I like Levi, but even he listens to others.
If you don't do this then you will end up making a fool of yourself.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
Do we start seeing the system sag south of forecast towards the downshear convcetion?
That would put it on a more westward track right?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:19 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Obtuse1
what about the bofa thread
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:20 pm to rds dc
quote:
Do we start seeing the system sag south of forecast towards the downshear convcetion?
That's the question the GFS has been asking me for the last six runs or so.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:20 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
The Bourbon thread is likely the longest active one if you add up all three iterations.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:20 pm to deltaland
quote:
That would put it on a more westward track right?
That's been the whole point of the conversation regarding the GFS vs Euro over the past 24+ hours. Keep up, baw.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:21 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Most of us are a few steps ahead of that.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:25 pm to Duke
quote:
I wish i could ban people from the thread.
Duke you would never
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:26 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
Give me your list, buddy!
:wink:
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:27 pm to NOLAGT
quote:
NOLAGT
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:29 pm to rds dc
18z Euro is weaker and east. If it went out beyond 90hrs then it might pull 98L out east of FL after passing over Cuba.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:34 pm to deltaland
quote:
That would put it on a more westward track right?
Maybe? It could slip a good bit farther west and south of what the Euro is showing and probably still get picked up, so it might not impact the final track too much. It could play a role in strength if that allowed 98L to get in a better position in regards to the ULAC.
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