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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:22 pm to
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127733 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

I'm generally buying what the Euros are selling this afternoon. Makes the most sense.


Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5425 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

12z Euro EPS with a pretty big shift east


Posted by LC Baw
Lake Charles, LA
Member since Jan 2021
242 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:46 pm to
frick him! He said we "dodged a bullet" with Laura
Posted by blacroix
Member since Sep 2019
515 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:54 pm to
quote:


And understanding the connection between systemic racism and climate change.


They are both made up. That is the connection.
Posted by ellesssuuu
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2016
3167 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:54 pm to
dumb bel said people shouldnt be worrying about their rights. fricking idiot
Posted by zsav77
Member since Oct 2011
6255 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

frick him! He said we "dodged a bullet" with Laura



Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12528 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:59 pm to
So what are the most recent educated guesses where potential cyclone Hermine is going to go iff it makes it into the Gulf ?
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 4:01 pm
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76005 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:05 pm to
In a northerly direction.
Posted by CCT
LA
Member since Dec 2006
6785 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:06 pm to
Northeast.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6759 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

So what are the most recent educated guesses where potential cyclone Hermine is going to go iff it makes it into the Gulf ?


An educated guess cant be made until a center is formed.
Posted by biglosdaddy
south louisiana
Member since May 2007
1012 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Though Zeta was still quite a little bitch with both of those elements in play


Did Zeta buck trends because it was hauling arse?
Posted by Easye921
Mobile
Member since Jan 2013
2885 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:16 pm to
That one coming up Mobile Bay can frick right off.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71080 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

JBE

FTSC
Posted by NolaTiger52
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2018
2099 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:17 pm to
Is it safe to say that none of these models mean shite until a center forms?
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
11004 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:17 pm to
Could be looking at a Labor Day 1935 rehash up the west coast of Florida. Pretty much worst case scenario for Tampa. Right front quadrant and onshore flow pumping up the bay.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14646 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

Is it safe to say that none of these models mean shite until a center forms?



They are generally useful for motion of tracks 5 days out, anything more than that is meh
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71080 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

Is it safe to say that none of these models mean shite until a center forms?

No, saying that simplifies things way too much.

You use models as a guide at this point, and look for trends. They aren't useless, but neither are they Gospel.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
41622 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

So what are the most recent educated guesses where potential cyclone Hermine is going to go iff it makes it into the Gulf ?

Find a link to the European or GPS ensembles.
These models look at various scenarios and plot what course the future storm would take in each scenario.

From what I remember a few tracks were in the west central GOM, but more were in the Eastern GOM. All of these tracks are educated guesses.

Now since there are more tracks in the East GOM than the Centrsl GOM Florida seems to be a more likely candidate fir this storm, but it’s just a guess I’m making based on the odds right now.

Disclaimer, these odds could change tomorrow.
Posted by Herschal
Land of the Free
Member since Sep 2011
2100 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:22 pm to
quote:

JBE


Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12528 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:33 pm to
Thanks dude ! I’m going to keep my medications filled and my car full of fuel just in case Louisiana gets put in the crosshairs.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 4:34 pm
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