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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/30/22 at 6:39 pm to OMLandshark
Posted on 9/30/22 at 6:39 pm to OMLandshark
Dad over near Orlando they did staging area today and did jack shite. No idea why they stage them to get people's electricity back on knowing full well they ain't going anywhere until they fully assess the damage.
2
Posted on 9/30/22 at 6:48 pm to deuce985
quote:
Dad over near Orlando they did staging area today and did jack shite. No idea why they stage them to get people's electricity back on knowing full well they ain't going anywhere until they fully assess the damage.
It's called staging. You are in a holding pattern awaiting instructions. You don't just get a call from your normal lineman job in Macon GA and told to show up at 123 fricked Street in Ft Myers. You deploy to a staging ground and await further instructions.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 6:51 pm to deuce985
quote:
Dad over near Orlando they did staging area today and did jack shite.
Is he getting paid to do jackshit?
Posted on 9/30/22 at 7:01 pm to liz18lsu
quote:
Checking in, safe
Any photos of you lost in thought whilst staring off at the storm in the distance?
Posted on 9/30/22 at 7:48 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I downvoted you so that if Chicken ever shows them, you can see it's me.
Same
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:19 pm to Duke
quote:
Why do yall care about a downvoter? I just assume its an awful poster, like Cosmo, throwing shade.
Lol
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:22 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
who has the kind of time to downvote every post for two days straight, hours at a time. That's some dedication.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:27 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
I am new to Florida and new to the concrete construction. Georgia is stick framing for everything.
Codes have definitely improved but codes need to be written for the areas that benefit from it. Throw a small earthquake at them and they won't fair well.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:59 pm to rmnldr
quote:
rmnldr
quote:
In for what could be a long thread
You definitely called it.
So, for thee OT resident weather aficionados - Was the European model the clear winner in this one? And do less successful modeling services ever take some parts of a formula from the more successful ones? I'm guessing that stuff is patented or protected some kind of way.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:29 pm to Deactived
quote:
Can she ever just talk and not do her awkward smiling?
That is all she ever does.
Talks word salad and never actually says a damn thing.
I cannot think of a coherent, well thought out phrase ever heard out of her cock receptacle.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:31 pm to borotiger
quote:
Throw a small earthquake at them and they won't fair well.
What if we had 9 in under 40 days back in march/april 2019, without houses not fairing well.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:33 pm to MoarKilometers
I75 in Norhport has been shut down due to the Myakka River rising. Rumors of a bridge collapse but not confirmed. I have a family member currently sitting in standstill for several hours
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:37 pm to Methuselah
I don’t think any of the models completely “nailed” it like they did Ida/ Laura. First, the models predicted a direct Tampa hit, then it moved further north, then back to Tampa. In reality, Tampa was a bit spared and further south was crushed. Rain estimates were much lower than predicted because it moved faster than anticipated. Went further out to sea and became stronger than anticipated (I predicted this though). Hit further north on Carolina coast than predicted.
I don’t really think the models had any idea of what to do with a hurricane hitting a strong cold front. Ian moved fast and stayed strong along it until it found a way through.
I don’t really think the models had any idea of what to do with a hurricane hitting a strong cold front. Ian moved fast and stayed strong along it until it found a way through.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:37 pm to ATLwreck
not sure where to put this.. but a potential monster might be coming this direction in a couple of weeks ??
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:41 pm to Methuselah
quote:
So, for thee OT resident weather aficionados - Was the European model the clear winner in this one? And do less successful modeling services ever take some parts of a formula from the more successful ones? I'm guessing that stuff is patented or protected some kind of way.
They both struggled with the steering after Cuba at different times and in different ways. The GFS went on its sojourn way West for a few runs, which was never realistic. Around the same time period the Euro was turning the system way too soon into extreme South Florida.
Both struggled with the position and strength of the upper level trough which was the biggest player in ultimate landfall. Euro got it right a little sooner, but even it took a trend to the North, flirting with the Panhandle a bit.
I think the GFS wasn't as bad as we first thought in the early stages. We believed it was likely showing a bias of firing convection downshear, driving the formation of the system too far West. In reality, it seemed to have a better handle on that than the Euro given how Ian ended up forming. That goes for both location and strength. Euro still had it a little too weak with a weaker vorticity, a known Euro bias, than it ultimately had South of Cuba.
The approach to Cuba played a big part, as it was always going to. Euro got that a little better, but as time grew shorter the difference closed.
All-in-all playing the middle ground between the two wasn't a bad approach. As the upper patterns became clearer, thanks in large part to many more soundings by local WFOs across the country than normal, the picture became clearer.
Both missed on the strength on approach. That is what it is at this point. Some of the hurricane models parsed that out better.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:42 pm to Methuselah
quote:
So, for thee OT resident weather aficionados - Was the European model the clear winner in this one?
I guess? UKMet was on the right solution for a longer time. It was also way too weak, which is why it had about the right landfall in Florida.
The Euro was also too weak for a long time and this contributed to some of it's success.
The GFS's biases left it in some trouble. It led to genesis too far west on the model for days. It also tends to move stuff too quickly, like our trough. As the timing got right, and the strength of the trough more in line it did find the solution.
I found the models did a good job of allowing meteorologists to see the players that would or could affect the track. In other words, they were asking the right questions, if not getting the right solution in the end.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:42 pm to BigBro
quote:
not sure where to put this.. but a potential monster might be coming this direction in a couple of weeks ??
You put it the same place the GFS is putting it right now, into Mexico.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:47 pm to BigBro
Posting a model run at hour 384. lol
But, ugh, there is ensemble support for something down there and we'll have to keep an eye on it.
But, ugh, there is ensemble support for something down there and we'll have to keep an eye on it.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:57 pm to Duke
I just like the downvotes..
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