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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am to alabamabuckeye
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am to alabamabuckeye
12z gfs definitely shifted west so far in the Caribbean
1
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am to LegendInMyMind
102 hours in and GFS 12z looks like it wants to just hit Honduras/Nicaragua 
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am to Tornado Alley
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:16 am to gaetti15
126 hours it's 20mb weaker than the last run.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:17 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:16 am to sms151t
Gulf has not cooled. Its going to be near 100 degrees this week in TX and Louisiana. The warm core eddy is biggest concern if the model has it nearing the coast of FL then heading west before heading back east.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:17 am to gaetti15
quote:
102 hours in and GFS 12z looks like it wants to just hit Honduras/Nicaragua
This run had it stay weaker longer (judging by 850 Voracity) and that has allowed it to push farther East and stay South longer. Interesting.
This run has "shooting the gap" and no land interaction written all over it right now.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:19 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:17 am to Tornado Alley
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:17 am to LegendInMyMind
That happened in corpus before Harvey. I scooted down the beach before I bugged out and the tide was 200 feet back.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:17 am to Mudminnow
It has been back near 100 in Austin all week, so did not know if the coastal areas had cooled off any
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:18 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:18 am to deltaland
a pretty good shift too
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:18 am to Cosmo
quote:
They have insurance
The great folks of Louisiana dont
I'm sorry you didn't see the same thing happen here. Companies pulled out of the state, The ones that stayed doubled and tripled prices. Many people can only get Citizens, which may be $3-5,000, yearly.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:19 am to DVinBR
Shes on a good trajectory to clip Yucatan.
Edit: More than clip it.
Edit: More than clip it.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:21 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:19 am to BallsEleven
This gfs run might actually have it hit the Yucatán
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:20 am to rds dc
12z GFS continues the trend towards the left side of the guidance envelope.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:20 am to rds dc
939mb post tropical Fiona up in canada
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:23 am to DVinBR
GFS seems to have moved way more west
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:23 am to DVinBR
quote:
939mb post tropical Fiona up in canada
939 is an improvement at this point. It was sub-930 most of yesterday.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:23 am to BallsEleven
quote:
126 hours it's 20mb weaker than the last run
Thats interesting
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:24 am to alabamabuckeye
More west = more melt from me
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:24 am to Mudminnow
quote:
Gulf has not cooled. Its going to be near 100 degrees this week in TX and Louisiana.
Do you think its ever cool enough in the gulf in Sept or early Oct to not support a major hurricane?
Even if it was 85 in TX and LA the gulf would still be really hot
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