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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:22 pm to
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:22 pm to
GFS again throwing out crazy rainfall totals. Tampa is no longer in that forecast if the GFS is right. But Disney World is going to be under water.

I wonder if their utilidors can handle this much?

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177195 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:23 pm to
quote:

How bad will it be for people at Disney resorts? Just found out a family member is there and didn't get a flight out.


A lot fo rain, a little wind. It should weaken pretty good by the time it makes it up there. Biggest worry for up there is tornadoes out ahead of the center. But being inside a Disney resort is probably one of the safer places to be.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:24 pm to
quote:

It won’t be bad at all.


The way it's tracking now, this isn't true at all. The structures won't fail, but there will be widespread power outages as that area gets flooded, and hurricane gusts.
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
36902 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

packing up now to leave early in the morning


Uh...that's a terrible idea. They need to leave right now.

My brother and family (from Ft. Myers) went over to Ft Lauderdale yesterday, though now they're getting tornado warnings over there from the outer bands.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

A lot fo rain, a little wind. It should weaken pretty good by the time it makes it up there. Biggest worry for up there is tornadoes out ahead of the center. But being inside a Disney resort is probably one of the safer places to be.


No doubt structure wise it is.

But this was the latest forecast I saw for that area.

quote:

Strong tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane strength, and widespread power outages. Very heavy rainfall will cause flooding-related travel delays.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59237 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:27 pm to
I am right just north and a little west of St.Augustine. hurricanes Irma and Matthew about 5 years back scared me because they were both right off our coast and could have easily made landfall here but didn't. Lots of coastal erosion and flooding. I am not too concerned about Ian other than some gusty winds and lots of rain. Not too worried where I live in Nocatee we have a flood control system in this planned community if it floods they distribute the water throughout multiple ponds and drain offs. I know OT baller shite right
Posted by ColoradoTiger1987
Tampa
Member since Jan 2019
1645 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

GFS again throwing out crazy rainfall totals. Tampa is no longer in that forecast if the GFS is right. But Disney World is going to be under water.

I wonder if their utilidors can handle this much?


Da frick you say? That says 30+ for not just Disney.
Posted by bikerack
NH
Member since Sep 2011
2550 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:30 pm to
Tornado moving thru Broward County
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74955 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:30 pm to
quote:

That's a recon bummer. Looks like Mission 24 is headed back to MS and Mission 25 is stuck over S. FL?

Things were going too well with recon flights this year. shite was bound to revert back to the norm.
Posted by Old Money
LSU
Member since Sep 2012
41735 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:32 pm to
If anyone is trying to come across the alley still, the traffic is very backed up and I was just in a purple band of weather. Hit a puddle so deep my jeep started sputtering
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

Da frick you say? That says 30+ for not just Disney.


Well yeah, but that's what we were talking about. Tampa proper would get flooded, but not nearly as bad as the earlier runs today.
Posted by LSUKNUT
Naples, Florida
Member since Jun 2007
2345 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:33 pm to
Lee County just sent out texts to shelter in place staring at 8:00 PM.
Posted by Lasix
The BEACH
Member since Jan 2014
618 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:33 pm to
It will be an experience you will never forget in you all lifetime. God bless.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74955 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:33 pm to
quote:

Tornado moving thru Broward County

Yeah, that one is on the ground.

For various reasons, we're going to have a better than normal chance to see significant tornadoes with Ian. Usually, they're quick spin-ups on the weaker side. There's a little higher ceiling with any warnings that are issued this time around.

Of course, the usual "little to no warning" tag applies, as is true with any tropical system.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 6:35 pm
Posted by Hurricane Mike
Member since Jun 2008
20059 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:34 pm to
quote:

Carolinas useless as usual.


They're in the potential path of the storm
Posted by Old Money
LSU
Member since Sep 2012
41735 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:34 pm to
quote:

We are staying. It was a tough decision but with tornado warnings all over Alligator Alley in our path we stayed.


Yeah, don’t drive now. It’s chaos. There were tons of FPL trucks coming from your direction which are backing traffic up even more.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:35 pm to
Euro is very similar to the GFS for rain now.

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51682 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:39 pm to
Can definitely see the EWRC going on on radar:

Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:39 pm to
quote:

It will be an experience you will never forget in you all lifetime. God bless.


Thank you. I went through Camille as a kid.
Posted by Lasix
The BEACH
Member since Jan 2014
618 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 6:40 pm to
In Mandeville Covington on I12 today with steady stream of utility trucks and FEMA trailers headed east.
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