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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:33 pm to uptiger1997
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:33 pm to uptiger1997
quote:
Still a lot to figure out with Ian. Here’s the latest NHC forecast track. Everything has been pointed toward Tampa…except the UKMet…& the 18z runs of the Euro, Icon & HMON all went w/ the Ukie bringing Ian into FL S of Tampa. Interesting.
Ian trying to pull a Charley.
1
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:33 pm to Duke
Alright, it’s time for the military to build flying tankers that can dump tons and tons of liquid nitrogen into these eye walls to knock these hurricanes down. I know the energy in a hurricane system is ginormous but this should be experimented with at least.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:33 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:36 pm to The Boat
quote:
Center on Key West radar. Will be able to track it on radar all the way in.
Remember this all.
There's no reason to guess at position via satellite when we have radar available.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:36 pm to The Boat
Damn, Boat. that new track puts tropical storm force winds in my back yard Wed. morning. 
ETA A Venice to Sarasota hit drops the Tampa surge.
ETA A Venice to Sarasota hit drops the Tampa surge.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:37 pm to uptiger1997
quote:
Still a lot to figure out with Ian. Here’s the latest NHC forecast track. Everything has been pointed toward Tampa…except the UKMet…& the 18z runs of the Euro, Icon & HMON all went w/ the Ukie bringing Ian into FL S of Tampa. Interesting.
A storm coming into lanfall on a trajectory that takes it parallel to the coast is a nightmare to forecast in regards to landfall. Not only does it open up a wider range of possibilities, it makes forecasters and EMA planners have to account for a much larger population that could be greatly impacted. They are probably the worst storms to forecast, and Ian is an even bigger problem because you have a terribly vulnerable city right smack in the middle of guidance for days now.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:40 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Alright, it’s time for the military to build flying tankers that can dump tons and tons of liquid nitrogen into these eye walls to knock these hurricanes down. I know the energy in a hurricane system is ginormous but this should be experimented with at least.
ETA: sorry folks
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:44 pm
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:42 pm to FLBooGoTigs1
It looks like regardless of the track it is just gonna park and dump water. A college friend in Oviedo said they're projecting 20" of rain.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:45 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Alright, it’s time for the military to build flying tankers that can dump tons and tons of liquid nitrogen into these eye walls to knock these hurricanes down. I know the energy in a hurricane system is ginormous but this should be experimented with at least.
Imagine the cost to liquify that much nitrogen.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:46 pm to H2O Tiger
I was looking at the present speed of 12 mph and hoping it would keep that speed or increase. Does anyone know if Ian going to slow down when it gets to open waters
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:46 pm to Duke
quote:
Imagine the cost to liquify that much nitrogen.
Drop in the bucket for the US guvment
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:47 pm to UFownstSECsince1950
Historically I would just put a layer at the bottom and then sandbag so four rows high. Take more and cover the sand mound with a layer one high to hold the front down.
MAKE SURE YOUR PUMP will last on the back side. It won’t keep all the water out so have a pump and an electricity source (and ventilation) to keep pumping water out.
MAKE SURE YOUR PUMP will last on the back side. It won’t keep all the water out so have a pump and an electricity source (and ventilation) to keep pumping water out.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:49 pm to FLBooGoTigs1
according to this tweet, it speeds up then just stalls right before hitting the florida coast
https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1574590078227202059
https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1574590078227202059
quote:
There have been a few models continuing the eastward trend of #Ian. This is the GRAF model, which shows landfall in Sarasota county. It's not alone. The afternoon Euro and Icon do as well. No telling if NHC will shift S/E. The take away is same: the whole cone is in play.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:52 pm
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:51 pm to H2O Tiger
Honestly the damage done by these hurricanes runs into the billions I wouldn’t have problem trying a one time test to see if something like the nitrogen thing would work aka like a liquid nitrogen bomb right into the eye at full strength.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:52 pm to Duke
quote:
Imagine the cost to liquify that much nitrogen
That money and then some can be found laundered through Ukraine if you want it
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:54 pm to uptiger1997
quote:
then just stalls right before hitting the florida coast
That would definitely be worse case scenario
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:54 pm to FLBooGoTigs1
I dont think y'all are appreciating the scale here.
It would take comical amounts to make a difference. You'd have to have a plant capable of condensing that much. You got to be able to store it. You also need the means to deliver the metric fricktons needed to where it's needed.
I like that GumboPot is thinking outside the box here. One day I might try to do a rough calculation of just how much it would take. I mean, I probably won't because lazy but it would be interesting.
It would take comical amounts to make a difference. You'd have to have a plant capable of condensing that much. You got to be able to store it. You also need the means to deliver the metric fricktons needed to where it's needed.
I like that GumboPot is thinking outside the box here. One day I might try to do a rough calculation of just how much it would take. I mean, I probably won't because lazy but it would be interesting.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:57 pm to Duke
Oh I get it some of these mega hurricanes are the size of the East Coast so it’s going to be pointless dropping something like that into a storm of that size.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:58 pm to uptiger1997
Latest 00Z Icon with same track as previous but a little slower to landfall approx. near Sarasota / Venice.
ETA - GFS also came in around Bradenton / Sarasota
ETA - GFS also came in around Bradenton / Sarasota
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 11:02 pm
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