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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:39 am to
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46754 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Where are you at?????


Between the Beach and the mouse. Do you want me to send my address to your secretary, and pull a few T-bones out of the freezer?
???????
Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
127339 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Bonita Springs up the coast past Cedar Key
Yup.

Posted by sportsaddit68
Hammond
Member since Sep 2008
6565 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:40 am to
I'm hoping the east side of the storm isn't too bad. I have family in Melbourne over by Cape Canaveral. And they just had a newborn. Pardon my ignorance, but if path holds true, which I know can change 100 more times, how does the east side of the coast look? The west obviously will get the worst, but any major flooding projected?
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15266 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:40 am to
quote:

The little motel with a tiki bar I was looking at buying is on Low Key. Which is named that for a reason.:. Hope the best for the couple that bought it. Supposed to go after Christmas.



oh yes! I remember that place.

Got quiet drunk at that place after a training...almost forgot about it.

Drank soooo many dark n stormys
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18048 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Tampa’s storm water all running into the bay is going to make this even more problematic. South Tampa specifically. Hopefully rain totals aren’t massive because there won’t be anywhere for that water to go

This is definitely something to watch too. Right now the models have the heaviest totals just offshore, but it's awfully close. 12" of rain is bad enough on its own, but with the bay being pushed up 10'...
Posted by au4you
Alabama
Member since Dec 2010
3170 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:44 am to
Hate to disrupt the flow of info with something as trivial as a vacation.

But anyone have an idea about how the Rosemary Beach area will be Thursday through Sunday? Is it almost certain to be a rain out? Any other issues besides just rain? We are just playing it by ear right now.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6984 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:46 am to
quote:

But anyone have an idea about how the Rosemary Beach area will be Thursday through Sunday? Is it almost certain to be a rain out? Any other issues besides just rain? We are just playing it by ear right now.


This has been asked only 350 times. No, the rain (if any) will be gone by Friday night / Saturday morning....unless the track goes more west.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18048 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:49 am to
Based on the current track, probably fine just rough seas. But of course if the track shifts west, the weather gets closer.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
91318 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Hasn't the area not gotten a hurricane hit in 100 years? Hard to compare when you haven't seen what can happen from a near direct hurricane path
Nothing direct. We were supposed to a couple years ago and everyone moved more inland and it went right over Lakeland, where everyone was

But the girlfriend and parents are starting to blow my phone up about leaving so I’ll probably lose this battle
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
21116 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:50 am to
quote:

The little motel with a tiki bar I was looking at buying is on Low Key.

Dude, that place is awesome... in it's own delightfully charming way. Other side of 24, maybe a 1/3, 1/2 mile back towards gville my buddy owns a 10 acre "island." It's gonna get fricked up, but they're rich, rich. I forsee them having to build a new bridge to get from 24 to on their property

Edit to add pic... bottom left tiki bar, top right my buddy's place

This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 10:57 am
Posted by Slagathor
Makin' jokes about your teeny tiny
Member since Jul 2007
38984 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:55 am to
quote:

The little motel with a tiki bar I was looking at buying is on Low Key


Low Key Hideaway? We love CK!
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 10:57 am to
Tampa folks.

As the path stands, your reason for evac is you could flood. I would also assume the water will be higher than you think it will.

If you're in a good structure and know you're safe from flooding, it would probably be best to stay. Dont need people who are safe clogging the roads.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:00 am to
Latest GFS slams Ian into Tampa, and matches up with the ICON.

This would be VERY bad for Tampa, as it kind of just sits on top of that area.

This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 11:03 am
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:06 am to
quote:

everything from Bonita Springs


Furk, I'm in Collier County just below the Lee County (Bonita Springs) line. 1/2 mile from the Gulf and close to canals.
Posted by CarolinaGamecock99
Member since Apr 2015
24812 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:06 am to
Good god that’s bad
Posted by tdiez1995
denham springs
Member since Jun 2015
235 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:06 am to
Wedding to go to in Destin Saturday.
According to my booking confirmation I have until midnight tonight to cancel for free .
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:07 am to
quote:

Good god that’s bad


And we're nearly within the 72 hour forecasting range where the models hone in. I really hope the GFS is wrong because that would be a catastrophic run for Tampa.
Posted by lob1284
Houma by birth
Member since Mar 2006
5060 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:08 am to
quote:

au4you


What brings you to Rosemary?
Posted by AlumneyeJ93
Member since Apr 2022
950 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:10 am to
quote:

Wedding to go to in Destin Saturday.
According to my booking confirmation I have until midnight tonight to cancel for free .


Wedding on football saturday and bad weather. Hard no for me.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6984 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:11 am to
quote:

Wedding to go to in Destin Saturday.
According to my booking confirmation I have until midnight tonight to cancel for free .


Destin will be fine. probably only light showers on Friday if any.
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