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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:33 am to
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
18275 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:33 am to
quote:

My parents live in St. John County and really concerned about the flooding that's in store.

They will be fine, unless they live on the intercoastal. Might get a little soggy in that case.
quote:

It's rained almost every day this summer and the waterways are already really high.

Hasn't rained in damn near week. Will be over a week when the storm arrives.
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23457 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:37 am to
Tampa GFS Wed 8am - Fri 8am
quote:



Posted by Pitt Road
Floriduh
Member since Aug 2017
801 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:37 am to
I'm in Lake Placid, Highlands County. We were just miles from the edge of the cone as of 8 AM. I'm guessing that has changed for the worse of late.

Also, a huge F1 fan and race fan in general. I didn't realize you are in Florida.

I'm retired but work part time at SIR. Skip Barber was here all week and they cancelled. Suncoast Porsche Club cancelled this coming weekend.
Posted by shallowminded
Member since Nov 2012
2744 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:38 am to
I’m in at John’s county too. The area we are in drains very well, not at all worried about flooding. I’m most worried about winds.

What area of St. John’s county are they in?
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35710 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:38 am to
F1 fans unite.
Posted by bikerack
NH
Member since Sep 2011
2148 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:40 am to
quote:

What football games are likely to be canceled?


The Bucs are supposed to be at home on Sunday Night Football. If that nightmare model holds, I doubt it happens (at least at home).
Posted by VABuckeye
Naples, FL
Member since Dec 2007
35719 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:42 am to
quote:

Also, a huge F1 fan and race fan in general. I didn't realize you are in Florida.


We're in north Naples. I just canceled hotel rooms in Miami yesterday. I may look inland again but choices are limited with two 80 lb dogs. To compound that we're close enough to the Everglades that our best choice for a hotel is to go west and north which could put us even more in harms way.

Any F1 fan is a friend of mine.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 11:44 am
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23457 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:47 am to
CAPE doesn’t look too bad
quote:


Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:48 am to
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
20595 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:50 am to
My aunt, uncle, and a cousin (with her family) that live in Land O' Lakes. Could they be in for some flooding? I also have some more cousins in Bradenton. I think I will call them all today to offer a place to evacuate too if they want.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 4:16 pm
Posted by Pitt Road
Floriduh
Member since Aug 2017
801 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:50 am to
quote:

F1 fans unite.


Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23457 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:52 am to
quote:


Posted by titmouse
a tree branch above your car
Member since May 2006
6381 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:52 am to
What area of St. John’s county are they in?

Hastings area.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
95097 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:53 am to
I've got a place in Northeast Marion County. The house is surrounded by several pretty big oaks with limbs out over the roof so I've been keeping an eye on the wind gust maps. Worst I've seen for that area is around 50 so I think we can tolerate that. Best of luck to those of you closer to the Tampa area.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55537 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:54 am to
Do you know if those update with the model runs?
Posted by doublecutter
Hear & Their
Member since Oct 2003
6617 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:55 am to
quote:

We're in north Naples


I lived in Naples for five years. I was told that if you are east of 41 you should not flood from hurricane surge.

That was for North Naples from Pine Ridge Road going north to Bonita Springs. That area in Old Naples where 41 runs near Naples Bay is susceptible to flooding.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 11:59 am
Posted by Pitt Road
Floriduh
Member since Aug 2017
801 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:55 am to
quote:

We're in north Naples. I just canceled hotel rooms in Miami yesterday. I may look inland again but choices are limited with two 80 lb dogs. To compound that we're close enough to the Everglades that our best choice for a hotel is to go west and north which could put us even more in harms way.


Try Sebring or LP area. SRO (old Pirelli World Challenge) had a big weekend here and they just cleared out. Skip Barber just cancelled so there should be a lot of rooms in the area. Try Inn on the Lakes or Sebring Seven in Sebring. In LP there's a Ramada and Holiday Inn Express.
Posted by flyAU
Scottsdale
Member since Dec 2010
24866 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:56 am to
quote:

MoarKilometers


If it weren’t for restructuring of my job in January of last year, I would be the owner of Low Key hideaway. Such a badass place. It is the first to flood though unfortunately.
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23457 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 11:58 am to
quote:

Do you know if those update with the model runs?

Yes, I believe the 10-day meteograms are updated with the distributions at 6-hour intervals.
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22405 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 12:00 pm to
Does the the Hurricane running over Cuba affect the surge? Just seem logical to me that running over Cuba kills some momentum of the surge as opposed to if the Hurricane came right through Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba.
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