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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:45 am to longhorn22
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:45 am to longhorn22
quote:
Just read a post about it "sparing" tampa area....
Tampa will definitely feel this with the storm surge and massive rain. I think the “sparring” it comment is in relation to a direct hit/landfall that was projected at the end of last week. This thing is looking like a Cedar Keys area landfall, but still quite a bit of time for Ian to change directions a bit. Don’t think we know more until we see what it does to Cuba and what Cuba does to it, as it clears back into the warm gulf waters
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 8:46 am
0
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:46 am to loogaroo
Cape Coral is adjacent to Ft Myers. Caloosahatchie River basin area.
It shouldn't be as bad as the Tampa Bay surge. I hope...
It shouldn't be as bad as the Tampa Bay surge. I hope...
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:50 am to loogaroo
where did that storm surge map come from? do you have a link
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:55 am to White Roach
Sunrise over Ian. It's looking healthy on the visible satellite imagery this morning.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:57 am to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
where did that storm surge map come from? do you have a link
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/102341.shtml?inundation#contents
Here you can look all over the world:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-1/?data_id=dataSource_7-cat1_map_window_shapefile_7800%3A0
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 9:00 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:58 am to Roll Tide Ravens
And the current radar from Grand Cayman:
Posted on 9/26/22 at 8:58 am to Abstract Queso Dip
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:04 am to BPTiger
quote:
If you were in the port st joe area when would you leave?
You should head over to Cape San Blas and enjoy the surf.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:11 am to rds dc
So for educational purposes, why is it expected to ramp down so quickly when its going to over the warmest SST's in the Gulf? Land Friction?
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:13 am to 50_Tiger
I believe there’s a potential for dry air intrusion before landfall.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:13 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
So for educational purposes, why is it expected to ramp down so quickly when its going to over the warmest SST's in the Gulf? Land Friction?
sub-tropical jet imparting Southwesterly shear on the system.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:18 am to ABucks11
quote:
LSU has the SLOSH model that updates based on the NHC updates. Shows projected wind, surge, and inundation.
Also a great site to see historic storm surges.
I always forget about theirs. It's awesome.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:23 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
So for educational purposes, why is it expected to ramp down so quickly when its going to over the warmest SST's in the Gulf? Land Friction?
Shear out of the southwest, as well as ingesting some dry air.
This is what NHC said in their discussion this morning:
quote:
Around 60 hours, a sharp increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear and a drier mid-level environment
to the northwest of Ian is likely to induce some weakening.
Despite the reduction in intensity, Ian is likely to have an
expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which
will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge
impacts along the west coast of Florida.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 9:29 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:25 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Sunrise over Ian
Those sunrise over visible-sat images are always so imposing.
Quite dramatic reveal of such a terrible beauty.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:25 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Ian should rapidly intensify here.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:31 am to IT_Dawg
The same with Sally...hit us about midnight.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:33 am to SalE
Any chance this thing misses Cuba and shoots through the gap? Looking at the last couple gifs posted seems to be chugging along due NW
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:34 am to Duke
quote:
deep hot towers
Every time I read this I think it’s some perverse sexual thing
Posted on 9/26/22 at 9:37 am to paperwasp
Might head to my parents’ house in Cocoa Beach for a day. I’ve never flooded here in 10 years, though. Would be pretty inconvenient to have to make that trip.
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