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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:42 pm to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131395 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

From Louisiana to the Florida Keys.


Louisiana strike might be the worst cone miss ever
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102067 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

Levi says significant uncertainty of eventual landfall. From Louisiana to the Florida Keys.



wtf
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

Levi says significant uncertainty of eventual landfall. From Louisiana to the Florida Keys.


quote:


wtf


That's cautious, but there are a couple of ensemble members doing it. So he's going to mention it as a possibility.
Posted by lz2112
Largo, Fl
Member since Oct 2019
1172 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:46 pm to
Largo here.
Posted by mightynine
Member since May 2006
1278 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:48 pm to
It's because there's still some ensemble members wanting to push a storm west - possibly as far west as the Yucatan peninsula before the pull north.

Like this example:


At least as the models stand right now, it's not likely but it's not entirely ruled out.
Posted by BZ504
Texas
Member since Oct 2005
13564 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:50 pm to
Should I cancel my Disney trip next week? Lol
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

Should I cancel my Disney trip next week? Lol


Ouch.
Posted by Bunta
Member since Oct 2007
12700 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

Levi says significant uncertainty of eventual landfall. From Louisiana to the Florida Keys.


Meh, if I recall correctly he basically said anyone from the panhandle to south Florida should be prepared and gave Louisiana a passing mention. That was a really good video to understand how differently the GFS and Euro are forecasting the trough up north that affects the steering of the storm.
This post was edited on 9/23/22 at 8:54 pm
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46763 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

But LOL gayturd fan so frick me, right?



I don't remember not being a Tiger fan. My daughter is a Gator. I was just up in your area for a week. I used timeshare points at the world of golf. There is a Buc ees right there.

UF bit the pillow on that whole deal because they had injured kids that would be back if the game was postponed. That Jeremy character was a total a-hole, canceling a game under the clear skies.
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102067 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

That's cautious, but there are a couple of ensemble members doing it. So he's going to mention it as a possibility.



but is it responsible? I did not watch his latest stream. What variable did he say that it could bend to La?
Posted by Byrdybyrd05
Member since Nov 2014
26542 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:55 pm to
My uncle from Costa Rica went to Disney the week after one of the hurricanes hit Orlando back in 2004 or one of those years. He bitched about no power and other stuff after we all told him not to go lol.
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
23224 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:55 pm to
So, if this thing did go west towards Louisiana, will there be some of that sweet dry air to take the intensity down a few notches?
Posted by Deaux boi
BFE
Member since Jun 2016
396 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:56 pm to
No, the parks will be empty
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96980 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

but is it responsible? I did not watch his latest stream. What variable did he say that it could bend to La?


He doesn't think it's going to Louisiana. Just watch the video.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:58 pm to
quote:

but is it responsible?


The cost is low to say "hey just keep an eye on it". But nothing more than a passing mention.

quote:

What variable did he say that it could bend to La?


Didnt see his video but if it forms well to the south and west due to the shear, could miss the turn NE and slow down while moving north.

Louisiana is an extreme west version of that scenario.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178783 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:59 pm to
STOP SAYING LOUISIANA IN THIS THREAD
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:01 pm to
Fine.

louisiana
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29713 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:02 pm to


The latest Peej track just came out.
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102067 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:04 pm to
so who are the rebels that point to La? I see two but not sure who they are.

Posted by Bunta
Member since Oct 2007
12700 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

not sure who they are

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