re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

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GFS 9/23 00z is further south on Florida than the 9/22 18z run.

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Yeah, and close to one of the previous Euro's too. You'll probably see the Euro correct to this location too. So Port Charlotte is looking like a spot I'd be seriously getting my hurricane supplies together before everything goes crazy tomorrow.

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But can one of you start a thread, that in plain and understandable language simply discusses the potential landfall of said storms, like you’re Margaret Orr speaking to her pudding eating audience, but oh so much more accurate and without the drama!
I know that’s not as impressive or sexy to your weather loving buds, but it will reach a much larger audience than these posts do.

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The problem is, right now, we're in the weeds with the discussion. Of course, you do have a point. If you're coming here for info and the talk is breaking down PV+ with convection...not super helpful.

Here's the big picture:

The most likely outcome is it gets turned into the Florida peninsula.

Less likely but still a reasonable scenario would have it miss the pull of the trough and get toward the northern Gulf Coast. This looks less likely tonight per the models but for some of those technical things discussed earlier, those runs might be too far east tonight.

Unless it takes a far east path over Cuba and into far southern Florida, this will probably be a major hurricane.

Does that help?

Best thing about this 00z gfs run is those Thursday morning temps

GFS has it cross Florida, strengthen a bit then landfall again Ga/SC line

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Very close to where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. I will always remember Hurricane Charley made landfall in Punta Gorda, Florida because that's a fun name to say.

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I'll remember it because my folks were in St. Pete, and NHC had it coming in to Pinelas County as a Cat 3. I was watching it and told them it was going in toward Ft. Meyers. But local news listened to NHC and NHC said Tampa Bay. I told them they are fine, to stay put, but local news, listening to NHC said otherwise, so the decided to leave.

I told them, don't go South, they went south. They missed Charly's eyewall by about 12 hours and ended up in Vero Beach.

The most frustrating thing was watching Charly turn on radar, and NHC didn't change their warning until landfall. I have never trusted NHC since.

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Gotta use gifs and culture references to help people understand what's going on.

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Right? Like this.

This is folks in Louisiana tonight.



These are people in Florida

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split in half like Stephanie Abrams".

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kinky

No western shift = quiet night.
I'm up with the baby with some thawed breastmilk, I need entertainment

Ensembles follow the GFS to the east.

I also think that's a pretty reasonable spread from the GEFS tonight.



HWRF is getting into range, especially in the short range. It ends up going over just the tip of Cuba and is running NE in the last frame.



European remains the eastern most of the deterministic models tonight. That is back west some from 18z.

Euro ensembles aren't out.

For all the wild swings of the past day or so, we're starting to get some agreement on the west coast of Florida.

When are the next set of update?