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re: I think people need to accept that the housing window has closed
Posted on 7/31/26 at 4:59 pm to stout
Posted on 7/31/26 at 4:59 pm to stout
quote:
Correct but we are finally seeing some relief in that area FYI
Im not feeling that wage relief at all.
I think it was army tiger that was utilizing military pay increases over time.
Those folks always get COLA/general adjustments that outpace inflation.
Much harder for other Federal/State government (and really any other job) to get a reasonable yearly adjustment to salaries that doesnt get eaten up by healthcare insurance premium increases
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:01 pm
1
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:01 pm to gaetti15
quote:
that doesnt get eaten up by healthcare insurance premium increases
Move to NY or Cali and claim to be an illegal. Free healthcare.
Problem solved
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:01 pm to stout
quote:
The reason is pretty simple...interest rates were kept artificially low for too long, driving housing costs to outpace wage growth. Now that rates have risen, we are seeing wage growth make progress vs housing costs
The low rates helped prices to essentially double over like a 10 year period and then in very quck succession rates essentially doubled. Whammy
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:02 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Prices have also come down some over the last 6-8 months or so.
Maybe in some of the bigger markets.
Its taking forever for people to realize they cant sell for 100K+ what they bought the property for
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:02 pm to stout
quote:
stout
For real
Or get in on that Indian SBA racket
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:17 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
The low rates cause prices to essentially double over like a 10 year period and then in very quck succession rates essentially doubled. Whammy
I know I have said it a few times, and people accuse me of cheering for a crash. However, because my business manages foreclosures for financial institutions, I see both factual and anecdotal data that most people don't see and foreclosures and delinquencies are going up overall.
But the double whammy you describe has some people really F'd right now.
The most f'd are the Airbnbros and TikTok RE investor gurus. A lot of them are in the middle of getting hosed by a combination of rate increases on their ARMs, IRS recapture from their bonus depreciation, market price corrections, and dwindling rent demands.
It's sort of funny to watch because they all thought they would get rich and also wipe out their tax bill with that sweet depreciation. Even if they now sell at a loss from the original purchase price, they will still likely owe depreciation recapture taxes to the IRS.
It's glorious to watch idiots do very little research and just jump into something as sophisticated as RE investing. I have been in RE for 26 years, and it happened during the run-up to the 2008 crash too. Back then it was the house flipping shows that drove people to try and fail. Today it's social media gurus.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:20 pm to gaetti15
quote:
Its taking forever for people to realize they cant sell for 100K+ what they bought the property for
I was having this discussion with someone today. The market hasn't really reached price discovery yet for a lot of reasons.
People don't have to sell
People don't want to lose their low interest rates
Small pool of current buyers = people taking their homes off the market in record numbers
etc
The market is not stressed enough yet for price discovery, but I think it's coming.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:35 pm to stout
quote:
A brand new tract home is not the bottom of the market, though
You really don’t see a problem with the AVERAGE American family having to live in a fricking tract home an hour away from where they work?
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:35 pm to stout
quote:
People don't have to sell
People don't want to lose their low interest rates
Small pool of current buyers = people taking their homes off the market in record numbers
And on top of that people just literally leaving their shite on the marketplace for monthssssss without dropping their prices. Then doing that stupid pull off market then put back on market schtick
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:35 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Yea, you go and look through the supply of $100k hosues. Let's stop pretending there is a sufficient supply of homes in that range.
Your mindset is a major part of the problem.
Filter a 30 mile radius around your current location on zillow at $120k and tell me you dont get at least 70 hits.
You just dont want to live in what $100k will buy you for 3-5 years.
THAT is the problem.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:37 pm to CPA Yung Boi
quote:
You really don’t see a problem with the AVERAGE American family having to live in a fricking tract home an hour away from where they work?
You're being hyperbolic
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:38 pm to dnm3305
Oh I can assure you my mindset is not the problem here.
But you’re right, I don’t want to sell my house to move into a 100k house.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:41 pm to stout
quote:
You're being hyperbolic
You’ve responded with “well they can afford a tract home” like a dozen times
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:42 pm to dnm3305
quote:
Filter a 30 mile radius around your current location on zillow at $120k and tell me you dont get at least 70 hits. You just dont want to live in what $100k will buy you for 3-5 years.
Nothing under $250k is is remotely livable or safe for families in a huge percentage of the country—and especially in Louisiana/Gulf South where most posters here live—that want to use any public services whatsoever. That would include schools
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:48 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:44 pm to dnm3305
quote:
Filter a 30 mile radius around your current location on zillow at $120k and tell me you dont get at least 70 hits.
I see like 70 homes in the ghetto-ist part of coastal MS (gulfport) and then 20-30 just complete tear downs in ghetto areas
ETA: I also dont even want to know how much those poor people below i10 in those areas pay for flood insurance
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:45 pm to CPA Yung Boi
They can and a tract home is not the bottom of the market
Also, that is not the average family home, as you alluded to
Also...also, the average tract home suburbs do not require an hour commute
Your post was complete hyperbole to try to win an internet argument. You even drove it home with an F bomb like that strengthened your made-up fallacy.
Also, that is not the average family home, as you alluded to
Also...also, the average tract home suburbs do not require an hour commute
Your post was complete hyperbole to try to win an internet argument. You even drove it home with an F bomb like that strengthened your made-up fallacy.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:50 pm to stout
quote:
tract home is not the bottom of the market
Correct not even close.
The several dozen $100,000 destroyed shotgun houses on 1/8th acre plots are the actual bottom. But that other poster says live there for 3-5 years with your family and then you can bootstrap up.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:51 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:50 pm to stout
quote:
People don't want to lose their low interest rates
Yea this is part of a post I made earlier about people being stuck. The first time buyers are in a position that getting an adequate down payment to make the mortgage and all a responsible number for them, that’s extremely difficult with where prices are.
The second time buyers that ideally would be selling their starter homes and moving into their “permanent” family homes are stuck with interest rates because they are going to struggle affording the house they would need size wise. So they are needing to sell at very high prices, that loops back into the first scenario.
The double whammy in action.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:51 pm to stout
quote:
Also...also, the average tract home suburbs do not require an hour commute
At that price range they absolutely do. Townhomes in places like Allen or Plano are selling for nearly a half a million dollars…. And have an HOA.
A 2000 sq ft single family home that’s not a total gut is at least 600k.
There are affordable homes. Those affordable homes are WAY worse (due to build quality, commute time, condition, area, or a combination there of) than affordable homes 10 years ago, 20 years ago, or 30 years ago
Posted on 7/31/26 at 5:53 pm to CPA Yung Boi
quote:
Townhomes in places like Allen or Plano are selling for nearly a half a million dollars…. And have an HOA.
HOAs are death traps nowadays especially if its a condo association.
Death by a million HOA fee increases ha
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