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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Wonder if we’re starting to see an EWRC…
May be hard to call with this one, at least early on. The concentric eyes unrelated to an EWRC have been present for a while now.
1
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:57 pm to LegendInMyMind
Hope yall stocked up on titty milk
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:57 pm to Duke
Duke, are some of the models still predicting this thing to circle back at hit the Florida peninsula again?
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:57 pm to DhanTigers212
110mph, 958mb on the 11pm edt update
cat 4 at landfall is the NHC forecast
cat 4 at landfall is the NHC forecast
This post was edited on 8/29/23 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:58 pm to TH03
NHC calling for a Cat 4 at landfall now?
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
New advisory coming out now. Still at 110 MPH.
Posted on 8/29/23 at 9:59 pm to joshnorris14
yeah
This post was edited on 8/29/23 at 9:59 pm
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:00 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
TWC just said it's expected to be a CAT 4 by landfall...Wow.
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:01 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
NHC calling for a Cat 4 at landfall now?
Yep, this is from the discussion on this advisory:
Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening seems likely up to landfall. The new official intensity forecast calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall. This is fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model simulations. After the center moves back over the Atlantic, significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
This post was edited on 8/29/23 at 10:04 pm
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:02 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
Duke, are some of the models still predicting this thing to circle back at hit the Florida peninsula again?
Not Duke, but GFS is still holding onto that notion while the others ultimately send it out to sea. Even with the GFS it comes back as a weak depression
This post was edited on 8/29/23 at 10:03 pm
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:04 pm to gladchiefisgone
Excuse the dumb question that obviously has no real answer but what are the chances that Idalia makes the loop and comes back through the Gulf again?
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:05 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Excuse the dumb question that obviously has no real answer but what are the chances that Idalia makes the loop and comes back through the Gulf again?
It could happen in general. Read up on Hurricane Ivan, seriously....it is worth the time. This one doesn't have a whole lot of model support for that right now.
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:06 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Looks like the HWRF wins again unfortunately.
It did pretty well last year too IIRC
It did pretty well last year too IIRC
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:06 pm to LegendInMyMind
Zeroing in between St. Marks & Steinhatchee. Perry gonna take it on the nose.
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:08 pm to Obtuse1
Extremely rare. It happens but not very often. GFS seems to be hanging on to it though so might be worth keeping an eye on. None of the other models agree with it though and considering it's GFS...they like happy hour on longer runs.
This post was edited on 8/29/23 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:09 pm to RockChalkTiger
JUST IN: Idalia is expected to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall tomorrow morning in Florida's Big Bend, with maximum winds of 130 mph. That kind of wind is destructive. Storm surge predictions have increased to 12-16 feet between Wakulla County and Yankeetown, FL.
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:10 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Thoughts and prayers from the Zappe family to all those who are in the path of this storm. Also a shout out to the folks at the National Weather Service offices and National Hurricane Center (who are spending some long shifts preparing for this storm). I spent many 12+ hour shifts back in the day when I worked at the NWS offices in Lake Charles and Jacksonville.
On a personal note… I lost virtually everything when my house flooded during hurricane Harvey here in Houston. These are certainly the times when you will be pushed to the limit but you will persevere.
God bless…
On a personal note… I lost virtually everything when my house flooded during hurricane Harvey here in Houston. These are certainly the times when you will be pushed to the limit but you will persevere.
God bless…
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:10 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Buoy 42099 that had the 34 foot significant wave height may be gone/damaged.
Hasn't reported in over an hour.
Hasn't reported in over an hour.
Posted on 8/29/23 at 10:11 pm to OU Guy
Peak storm surge forecast has been increased slightly for Florida’s Big Bend. 12-16 FEET
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