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Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:23 pm to liz18lsu
quote:
SWFL says *prayers*
SWFL?
I didn't know that
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:24 pm to rds dc
Jesus H...
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:26 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Hurricane Season
quote:like a moth to a flame
RummelTiger
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:27 pm to rds dc
So in 300 hours that thing is over NOLA then 54 hours later it has moved south into the gulf? I'm no meteorologist, but I feel confident in calling bullshite.
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:27 pm to Jake88
Lol
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:29 pm to Jake88
quote:
So in 300 hours that thing is over NOLA then 54 hours later it has moved south into the gulf? I'm no meteorologist, but I feel confident in calling bullshite.
I take it as two different models have a track on the potential tropical development but have different landfall times. The second model being 48 hours or so behind the first model.
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:30 pm to 4LSU2
Exactly it's 2 different models GFS and Future GFS
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:41 pm to Rouge
quote:
like a moth to a flame
I'm here to protect and serve...
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:45 pm to SippyCup
quote:
I brought this up in the other thread. GFS is currently being very consistent with something brewing up. The path keeps flopping from the mouth of the river to east of Florida.
This is like 99% a false alarm. We have seen this the past couple of years out of the GFS. It is pretty normal for large unorganized areas of disturbed weather and lower pressures to develop in the WCAB this time of year. The GFS does a few odd things that help consolidate low level vorticity (spin).
In the image above you can see the enhanced vorticity off the coast of Nicaragua. Then a series of feedback issues within the model let things get out of hand and we start to see the formation of the system. In the image below, the GFS is off to the races even with the system still being still somewhat elongated.
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:46 pm to Placebeaux
quote:
So this storm forms over new Orleans then moves out into the gulf?
About thirty years ago give or take, a cold front came down, and then stalled on Pontchartrain, and became a hurricane that then moved offshore. I don't recall it ever reaching more than a Cat 1.
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
This is like 99% a false alarm. We have seen this the past couple of years out of the GFS. It is pretty normal for large unorganized areas of disturbed weather and lower pressures to develop in the WCAB this time of year. The GFS does a few odd things that help consolidate low level vorticity (spin).
No doubt.
quote:
In the image above you can see the enhanced vorticity off the coast of Nicaragua. Then a series of feedback issues within the model let things get out of hand and we start to see the formation of the system. In the image below, the GFS is off to the races even with the system still being still somewhat elongated.
Mmmmmhmm. And so, in summation, you think this will do what.....
Posted on 5/9/18 at 9:49 pm to Placebeaux
quote:
So this storm forms over new Orleans then moves out into the gulf?
No. First image is from the operational GFS and the second image is from the experimental GFS.
Posted on 5/9/18 at 10:05 pm to rds dc
GFS is iffy...I mean sometimes they hit it....sometimes the EURO does and there are plenty of others that nail the middle of their disagreement. What are other models showing? Obviously they are sniffing something, what do the other's show?
Posted on 5/9/18 at 10:22 pm to rds dc
frick this shite. I've got a condo booked in Navarre Beach on the 23rd.
Posted on 5/9/18 at 10:26 pm to rds dc
I've seen better GFS in the quad.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 8:47 am to The Boat
Even though nothing should come of this, that’d be some shite if that panned out
Posted on 5/10/18 at 8:54 am to TheriotAF
quote:
Even though nothing should come of this, that’d be some shite if that panned out
Right! Could you imagine a category 4 hurricane bearing down on the Gulf coast in MAY?
Posted on 5/10/18 at 9:04 am to TDsngumbo
Arnt water temps still in the mid 70’s? Have to assume that is low for this time of year. Cant see how a category three would form with cold temps like that.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:07 pm to rds dc
Latest GFS takes "it" over Florida. I get that the GFS is notoriously aggressive with early season formation, but what's the likelihood that this is indeed a significant rain event and not so much a tropical storm?
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