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Started By
Message
3
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:20 pm to deltaland
quote:
A 952mb storm in late May? Highly improbable
Exactly, but is the moisture that the gfs is turning up realistic or is this also phantom?
quote:
Has Peej weighed in yet?
I’ve heard his initial prediction was a slow year and no Gulf threats. We are all screwed.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:20 pm to deltaland
not worried about the storm season, my shelter is complete.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:25 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
not worried about the storm season, my shelter is complete.
You poor misguided soul. You're not safe in "A" blue shed. You're safe in "THE" Blue Shed.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:26 pm to rds dc
quote:
This is like 99% a false alarm
So you're saying there's a chance.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:51 pm to SippyCup
quote:
I’ve heard his initial prediction was a slow year and no Gulf threats. We are all screwed.
frick
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:56 pm to SippyCup
quote:
but is the moisture that the gfs is turning up realistic or is this also phantom?
This is more along the line of what I want to know. Water temps don't have to be very high for a very wet tropical disturbance to develop and sit over the same area.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 1:00 pm to Byrdybyrd05
Euro. All day, e’ry day.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 2:28 pm to Spasweezy
A potential 952 millibar low would equate to a 125 mph tropical cyclone. I cannot imagine that heat content and favorable wind shear would be available in late May. I never trust any global model past 72-84 hours.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 9:25 pm to rds dc
Posted on 5/10/18 at 9:45 pm to DustyDinkleman
I kid - I do find it funny i just watched that movie last night LOL
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:14 pm to Thracken13
quote:
I do find it funny i just watched that movie last night LOL
Great movie
Posted on 5/11/18 at 9:22 am to DustyDinkleman
is it happening?????
Posted on 5/11/18 at 7:17 pm to deltaland
Friday May 11:
Latest run of GFS-FV3 (276 Hr) has 1002 mb low in northwestern CARibbean with nw quad winds of 43 knots (49 mph) ~ TS.
Ecmwf model and GFS model runs indicate lower pressures 8-11 days out over Honduras and NW Carribbean.
MJO is favorable for upward motion over western Caribbean about 10-15 days out.
Psble TC development . Still eleven day forecast that may not materialize.
Latest run of GFS-FV3 (276 Hr) has 1002 mb low in northwestern CARibbean with nw quad winds of 43 knots (49 mph) ~ TS.
Ecmwf model and GFS model runs indicate lower pressures 8-11 days out over Honduras and NW Carribbean.
MJO is favorable for upward motion over western Caribbean about 10-15 days out.
Psble TC development . Still eleven day forecast that may not materialize.
Posted on 5/11/18 at 7:43 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Hurricane Alberto stacked..Gulf Coast fricked.
And Mayor C Ray Nagin is pissed!
Posted on 5/12/18 at 11:03 am to rds dc
Alternative headline, "Our Models Suck, Disregard them, When the Euro Shows something then we will talk about it"
The latest GFS and Experimental GFS Runs:
On a bit more serious of a note, there are some encouraging signs in the current Atlantic sea surface temp analysis.
The current SST configuration is typically not conducive for an active Atlantic. If temps stay cooler than normal along the black line as we move into June and July then that will be a very good sign.
The latest GFS and Experimental GFS Runs:
On a bit more serious of a note, there are some encouraging signs in the current Atlantic sea surface temp analysis.
The current SST configuration is typically not conducive for an active Atlantic. If temps stay cooler than normal along the black line as we move into June and July then that will be a very good sign.
Posted on 5/13/18 at 4:39 pm to rds dc
30% chance of formation in 48 hours.
40% chance of formation in 5 days.
40% chance of formation in 5 days.
Posted on 5/13/18 at 4:58 pm to rds dc
I'm not over Irma, frick this. Much less all the ones I went through in LA. Goddamn.
Posted on 5/13/18 at 5:14 pm to liz18lsu
TX had enough with Harvey. Doesn't need anymore.
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