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re: Hurricane Season - Watching WCAB & Gulf for Late Week Development

Posted on 8/17/21 at 8:46 pm to
Posted by BigHoss
Offshore
Member since Apr 2010
3360 posts
Posted on 8/17/21 at 8:46 pm to
That is correct lol. Just changed flights to Cabo to be safe
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24749 posts
Posted on 8/17/21 at 9:47 pm to
Going to Cancun on Monday....watching closely.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97204 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 6:51 am to
So let’s talk about the GFS having Henri make landfall on Long Island as a Cat 3




ETA Hmon in agreeance




Euro has it in same area but as an open wave but EUro has way underestimated intensity thus far this year
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 6:56 am
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
11331 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 7:01 am to
quote:

Henri make landfall on Long Island as a Cat 3


This should be their new go-to for clicks and melts instead of using Nola every time
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
40895 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 7:34 am to
I like to think we’ll get a little bit of Grace.
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
22058 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 7:43 am to
quote:

So let’s talk about the GFS having Henri make landfall on Long Island as a Cat 3




We’d never hear the end of it.
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 7:49 am
Posted by Costanza
Member since May 2011
3255 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 7:46 am to
quote:

So let’s talk about the GFS having Henri make landfall on Long Island as a Cat 3



You misspelled SUPER STORM HENRI
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43474 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 8:13 am to
Woof that would be brutal for the area.
Posted by whiskey over ice
Member since Sep 2020
3589 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 8:24 am to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48920 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 9:01 am to
quote:

Any idea of how strong Grace gets?


NHC is forecasting winds max sustained winds of 85mph just before landfall, so Cat. 1 if that verifies.
Posted by busbeepbeep
When will then be now?
Member since Jan 2004
19174 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 9:04 am to
quote:

Going to Cancun on Monday....watching closely.

I was just in Cozumel from 13th to 17th. Had great timing flying home yesterday.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12436 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 10:28 am to
Boring season so far. Isn’t Grace our first Hurricane ? I can’t remember in my old age.
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 10:29 am
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
83911 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 10:32 am to
quote:

We’d never hear the end of it.



Man a stiff tropical storm and it'd be like COVID and Afghanistan never happened
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3016 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 10:49 am to
“But the reason we deserve so much attention and money is because it never happens here! You idiots live where these things happen! These things don’t happen here!”
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1928 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 11:02 am to
quote:

Boring season so far. Isn’t Grace our first Hurricane ? I can’t remember in my old age.


From a CONUS landfalling perspective, yes.

But I suspect that opinion will change by this same time next month. To this point in the season, systems are delaying development until they reach the Caribbean or Gulf. In part due to shear and dust in the Atlantic. That recipe strongly favors a Gulf Coast landfall at some point this year. La Nina also supports an extended season into October, which minus last year, usually signals a shutdown for CONUS landfalls.
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 11:03 am
Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
17747 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 11:06 am to
So GOM looks clear until Labor Day weekend?
I’m seeing GFS wanting to throw something up from the Caribbean around that time.
Those make me nervous as all of last year’s storms were born there.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
75869 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 11:07 am to
quote:

Isn’t Grace our first Hurricane ? I can’t remember in my old age.


Elsa got a hair over 73 for a short time.

quote:

Boring season so far.


STHU before you jinx it.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1928 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 11:11 am to
quote:

So GOM looks clear until Labor Day weekend?
I’m seeing GFS wanting to throw something up from the Caribbean around that time.
Those make me nervous as all of last year’s storms were born there.


Looks to be a bit before that(end of month)according to the GFS ensembles - but those sort of details aren't clear at the 8-10 day range. I'd focus on the fact that conditions look favorable for homegrown development near the end of the month.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97204 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 11:21 am to
Grace is now a hurricane at 75mph moving WNW
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 11:32 am to
Won't be boring the next 2 months moving forward.
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