Hurricane Season - 91L - Flash Flood Warnings for S. LA, Worst Rain Moving out Later Today

Hurricane moving up the Mississippi River drainage basin, that is already at a high level, could be devastating

Just when Punta Cana was getting back on its feet.

So, should I cancel my trip to Fla on the 4th of July?

Damn. rds doing work early this year

I thought hurricane season was over

quote:

---

I thought hurricane season was over

---

I was going to buy a sack of crawfish next weekend but I’m sure they will be too high by next week.

quote:

---

Am I learning

---

Yes.

quote:

---

Thanks for explaining because I didn’t have a clue what all that meant

---

I've learned that these weather guys are REALLY into the jargon of the field because they all know what "Movement of the MJO through Phases 8,1,2" means, but explaining it takes paragraphs, so they use the jargon and the applicable charts and graphs in these threads to quickly get the information out to avoid writing novels. If you ask and aren't one of the "you don't know what you're talking about because a tornado didn't hit my house" assholes that come here trying to troll them, they're willing to explain it to you as best they can.

For instance, this chart

that rds posted when talking about moving from 8,1,2 is fairly simple. It is a quick way to show both where the rainy part of that MJO is and how strong it is. The farther the dots are from the center of the chart, the stronger the oscillation is. When the dots are in the circle, the oscillation is weak. When they start getting outside the circle, it's getting stronger and can influence weather more. The chart is divided into 8 "phases" that basically just correlate to the part of the planet the peak of the oscillation is over. You can read those rough locations around the outside of the chart. The bigger dot is the day the chart was made, and is marked with a 10 because the date of the chart is 5/10. You can see the earlier dates and see how it moved around the planet in the past. The green line and dots ahead of today show the official forecast based on the GEFS model ensemble's (which is noted in the top right corner of the chart) predictions of where it will be in the future. The spaghetti lines are very similar to a hurricane chart's spaghetti lines and represent what each individual model run of the ensemble is predicting.

The chart is showing that on 5/10, the peak was over the Western Pacific (phase 7, as seen on the edge of the graph) and is expected to move into the Western hemisphere and head to Africa (phases 8 & 1) over the next few weeks. As it moves over the next few weeks, it's expected to weaken some for a week or so, then begin strengthening again. Past the end of this chart, it will continue Eastward back into the Indian Ocean (phase 2). 8-1-2.

I think. It's taken me a couple of hurricane seasons to start picking up on some of the stuff that these guys are laying down, so there are definitely a lot of things that I'm still not understanding correctly or fully.