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re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:06 am to
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24407 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:06 am to
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43474 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:09 am to
Posted by VermilionTiger
Member since Dec 2012
38367 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:11 am to
Where’s jimbeam

He won’t like this trajectory
Posted by Captain Want
Member since Nov 2009
2165 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:16 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 9:04 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:17 am to
00z GEFS and Euro ensembles are in pretty good agreement on the Day 5 pattern. They are showing a stout blocking ridge over the Southern Plains and a weakness along the East Coast. That really limits the options for TD7 to dissipation over the Islands or out to sea in the weakness. There is the 00z Candian solution that shows a flatter ridge, less EC weakness, and that allows the TD7 to slip westward. However, as of now, that is only supported by the Canadian ensembles.

Posted by sonoma8
Member since Oct 2006
7853 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:21 am to
Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
37142 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:24 am to
I appreciate all that, but don’t know how to interpret it

What are the chances it enters the gulf?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:26 am to
quote:

I appreciate all that, but don’t know how to interpret it


Can't really go towards the big red circle, so it follows the blue slash
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24407 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:27 am to
Big red circle, no get bye bye.

Green arrow, me likey to go there.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67147 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Can't really go towards the big red circle, so it follows the blue slash

Can't get much more simple than that.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24407 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Can't really go towards the big red circle, so it follows the blue slash


Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48920 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:29 am to
Hispaniola mountains are going to chew it up. We'll see if it survives that.
Posted by iron banks
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
4092 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:34 am to
Wake me up when September ends
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48920 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:35 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:41 am to
quote:

spaniola mountains are going to chew it up. We'll see if it survives that.


The 12z Canadian does give me some pause. It is pretty good with the H5 pattern, better than the GFS. Also, there are some signs that the 12z GFS trended that way a bit.
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
22059 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:48 am to
frick the Canadians and their ghay Prime Minister.
This post was edited on 9/14/22 at 11:49 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:48 am to
12z GFS is melting down the East Coast weenies

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97208 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 12:18 pm to
A Cat 4 into DC wouldn’t be the worst outcome
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
38943 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

A Cat 4 into DC wouldn’t be the worst outcome



we would never hear the end of it.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
75414 posts
Posted on 9/14/22 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Can't really go towards the big red circle, so it follows the blue slash

I'm glad we've added to our weather lexicon on this board. East west movement measured in H's and now influencincing features as red circles and blue slashes. Much clearer.
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