re: Hurricane Season - 91L - Flash Flood Warnings for S. LA, Worst Rain Moving out Later Today

NHC up to 60%


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Recent satellite data indicate that circulation of a low pressure
system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has become a little
better defined today. However, the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is expected to move
slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could
become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


12z Euro brings a weak "TS" into Louisiana but it would be in the process of shearing out into the base of an upper level system.



There could be some heavy rain but the system should be moving rather fast as it is absorbed into the 500mb trough.

A strong ridge over the Gulf will keep this pinned down.



Then the feature that would allow it to eventually come north will also shear the system. At this time, it may get a name but not much of a threat.

Chicken Little, Chicken Little.

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Chicken Little, Chicken Little.

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You shut your whore mouth. If you have followed these threads for the last few years, you will see how helpful these fellers are when it is about to hit the fan.

There are at least two pros, a semi-pro, and a bunch of college prospects that attend. You will thank them later.

And for the rest of you, welcome to the season opener.

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Hurricane moving up the Mississippi River drainage basin, that is already at a high level, could be devastating

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Dont worry. Tyrone will save you.

Like rds said, it will be moving fairly quickly if it is picked up by the upper level system diving down into the ms river valley. Any more rain at all is not welcome but hopefully it is just a little.

The weather info from the pros on here is better than any other source I’ve seen. Always appreciate you baws.

Per a former meteorologist I follow on Facebook, Larry Cosgrove

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LINK

Invest 91L, in one way or another, looks like trouble for Texas.

I say this because the center of circulation, while still somewhat diffuse, is now over water north of the Mexican shoreline of the Bay of Campeche. While the near term models still do not have a good grasp of possible impacts, consider this: all of the numerical models now detect the storm, and most more or less take the disturbance along the rim of the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast into the eastern third of the Lone Star State.

It is possible for this system to attain weak tropical storm status (Barry). But with a trajectory that includes assimilation with a weak cold low aloft moving through the Red River Valley strongly implies a major rain event for the lower Rio Grande Valley and much of the Interstate 10 and 69 corridors.

The consensus on timing for strongest precipitation and severe weather impacts would seem to be Wednesday and Thursday. Because we have the heat ridge still over the Southeast, the intake of deep tropical moisture with this feature could produce staggering amounts of rain fall not only in TX but also parts of the Corn Belt and Old South.

Stay tuned, folks!

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Because we have the heat ridge still over the Southeast, the intake of deep tropical moisture with this feature could produce staggering amounts of rain fall not only in TX but also parts of the Corn Belt and Old South.

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Booooo

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Because we have the heat ridge still over the Southeast, the intake of deep tropical moisture with this feature could produce staggering amounts of rain fall not only in TX but also parts of the Corn Belt and Old South.

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Most are saying 6" of rain at the peak, not exactly fitting of the word staggering. Looks like Ole Larry is looking for clicks.