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1
Posted on 8/8/25 at 9:20 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:More like my corn hole.
Right up the mouth
Posted on 8/8/25 at 9:34 pm to Mr Roboto
The GFS and the Euro AI switched spots from lunch to the afternoon model runs. Comical fantasy land crap
Posted on 8/9/25 at 9:56 am to SWLA92
Corndog now.
Posted on 8/9/25 at 10:30 am to alphaandomega
The wave just off the African coast that is catching so much attention currently (orange one in the above graphic) appears to be a big recurving tease. At least according to GFS and Euro currently.
This post was edited on 8/9/25 at 10:32 am
Posted on 8/9/25 at 10:59 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/9/25 at 11:01 am to otowntiger
quote:
The wave just off the African coast that is catching so much attention currently (orange one in the above graphic) appears to be a big recurving tease. At least according to GFS and Euro currently.
It came off Africa pretty far north, and there is a strong trough passing through the Azores, which allows it to drift even farther north in the short term. The Atlantic ridge just isn't very stout right now and keeps getting eroded by disturbances. Even if this stays weak longer, it will be hard for it to get far enough west to be a Gulf threat. However, various model runs do show how it could happen, but it looks like an outlier solution at this point.
ETA: The 12z GFS is a good example of this. Despite being weaker through 96hrs vs. earlier runs, it is farther north.
This post was edited on 8/9/25 at 11:04 am
Posted on 8/9/25 at 11:05 am to rds dc
Yep- if that pattern continues, Cape Verde long trackers won’t be much a problem this year.
Posted on 8/9/25 at 11:18 am to otowntiger
I don’t know what any of that means, but I like it.
Posted on 8/9/25 at 6:41 pm to Swagga
97L up to 60% chance of development. Safe to say it will become hurricane. Hopefully it will curve out to sea as well
Posted on 8/9/25 at 6:49 pm to Allthatfades
Latest GFS gives the weather channel its New England doomcane they’ve always wishcasted
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:22 am to deltaland
The latest GFS I’m seeing (6Z 8/10/25) shows a clear and safe recurve, of course Bermuda notwithstanding.
This post was edited on 8/10/25 at 6:33 am
Posted on 8/10/25 at 9:46 am to otowntiger
quote:
clear and safe recurve
Looks likely at this point unless we see something like the Euro AI where the current vort max drastically weakens over the next 48hrs and the wave consolidates farther to the SW.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 10:29 am to rds dc
What does minimal hurricane activity mean in broader terms for weather activity later in the year, outside of hurricane season? If anything?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 10:33 am to brass2mouth
quote:
What are the chances we get out of this year unscathed and our premiums go down?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 10:47 am to rds dc
Don't jinx it!
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:39 pm to rds dc
quote:
Looks likely at this point unless we see something like the Euro AI where the current vort max drastically weakens over the next 48hrs and the wave consolidates farther to the SW.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:03 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 8/10/25 at 8:19 pm to Allthatfades
There is a new Euro AI ensemble system running and the 18z version has something for everyone 
Posted on 8/10/25 at 8:26 pm to rds dc
Katrina and Zeta were the only 2 that did me damage, both were homegrown not from Africa
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