re: Hurricane Season - No Current Gulf Threats

Posted by DVinBR

Member since Jan 2013

15744 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 9:39 am to Jim Rockford

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Posted by udtiger

Over your left shoulder

Member since Nov 2006

115384 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 9:40 am to DVinBR

Don't like that.

At all.

Posted by AncientTiger

Mississippi- Louisiana - Destin

Member since Sep 2016

2104 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 9:41 am to rds dc

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Posted by geauxtigers87

Louisiana

Member since Mar 2011

27427 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 9:46 am to DVinBR

if you're going to post shite that far out post it showing going in texas and not louisiana

Posted by PsychTiger

Member since Jul 2004

109242 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 9:46 am to AncientTiger

Hurricane Erin Staaaaacked!!!
Crawfish Prices Fuuuuucked!!!

Posted by Fun Bunch

New Orleans

Member since May 2008

130244 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 9:59 am to AncientTiger

That account is an infamous fear monger account

Posted by TigerDCC11

Member since May 2007

3278 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:11 am to DVinBR

I wouldn't post that. All these "head in the sand" people will downvote you for posting something "so far away".

These are the same people that start preparing their homes when the Hurricane eye is 2 hrs. away.

The good news is that the Euro hasn't shown anything yet.

Posted by Jake88

Member since Apr 2005

79933 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:17 am to TigerDCC11

quote:
I wouldn't post that. All these "head in the sand" people will downvote you for posting something "so far away"

There were posts of the GFS a week or more ago that were calling for that scenario on 8/23. So now it's pushed it 5 days into the future. I guess if you call for it often enough and keep pushing it into the future you'll be correct eventually.

So you dont post it because its useless, not because people have their head in the sand.

This post was edited on 8/16/25 at 10:18 am

Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

21519 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:22 am to AncientTiger

quote:
Florida Storm Chasers

Erin is much deeper this morning than forecasted and is feeling the upper-level flow more than models showed. The upper-level flow is imparting a bit of a SW component on the motion. Green circle in the image below.

This is putting Erin on the southern edge of the 06z ensemble guidance, but a deeper system probably feels the weakness to the north a bit more, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Erin slide towards the right hand side of the guidance. Either way, it's OTS for this system.

Now, the next potential system? A lot of its track will depend on how Erin impacts the steering across the North Atlantic. Models are in pretty good agreement that this wave will be approaching the Islands in about 5 days. Beyond that, there is a lot of disagreement over track and strength.

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Posted by DVinBR

Member since Jan 2013

15744 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:25 am to TigerDCC11

Euro is showing the same disturbance following right behind Erin

Posted by TigerDCC11

Member since May 2007

3278 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:26 am to Jake88

I'm not trying to be correct or "push" a hurricane anywhere. I'm just posting what the GPS models show. And, it really isn't that far away (10 days). I'm not going to get too worried until the Euro shows something and the two models agree.

It is just frustrating that 90% of the time, during Labor Day Weekend/ first full football weekend, there is a hurricane in the Gulf.

Posted by Cosmo

glassman's guest house

Member since Oct 2003

131559 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:27 am to Jake88

quote:
There were posts of the GFS a week or more ago that were calling for that scenario on 8/23

The gfs had erin hitting NOLA a week ago

Trust rds

Posted by Cosmo

glassman's guest house

Member since Oct 2003

131559 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:28 am to TigerDCC11

quote:
I'm not trying to be correct or "push" a hurricane anywhere. I'm just posting what the GPS models show.

Are you gonna show the next run that has it OTS or dying in mexico?

This post was edited on 8/16/25 at 10:28 am

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Posted by Mr Roboto

Seattle

Member since Jan 2023

8153 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:28 am to The Boat

quote:
Pressure down to 926. Pressure was 998 24 hours ago.

Rapid intensification

Posted by Jake88

Member since Apr 2005

79933 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:29 am to TigerDCC11

quote:
I'm not trying to be correct or "push" a hurricane anywhere

I know. I was referring to the GFS being correct eventually.

Posted by NorthEndZone

Member since Dec 2008

14289 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:29 am to rds dc

We have a Cat 5…

917 mb. 160 mph

455
WTNT65 KNHC 161520
TCUAT5

Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Kelly

This post was edited on 8/16/25 at 10:31 am

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

21519 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:30 am to DVinBR

quote:
Euro is showing the same disturbance following right behind Erin

Euro is slower to move Erin out, and this prevents the Atlantic Ridge from building in as fast and strong as it does on the GFS. The Euro setup allows the wave to get farther north and then get picked up by the next trough.

Posted by bamabenny

Member since Nov 2009

15758 posts

Posted on 8/16/25 at 10:31 am to NorthEndZone

quote:
maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h)

Yeah gonna need this one to kindly frick off