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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:13 pm to
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:13 pm to
I mean why not. Mother Nature said frick you to Texas, Louisiana and Florida on the Gulf this year miles well complete that cycle and say frick you to Mississippi and Alabama.
Posted by 9Fiddy
19th Hole
Member since Jan 2007
64121 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:15 pm to
I leave for Gulf Shores Friday and returning Tuesday.

How fricked am I? Or does this look like it’s just gonna be hit and miss storms?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:16 pm to
Looks like that model is seeing something similar to Euro where it gets swept up in the front and knocked towards Florida.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:17 pm to
Only model so far showing a hurricane is Euro but that could change next few days. They all seem to be in general agreement it's going to take that NE turn the issue appears to be timing based on the front and how far/fast south it makes it.
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
34946 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:17 pm to
Holy shite

Hurricane season dropping its nuts on us this year
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19813 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:19 pm to
18z SHIPS shows pretty low shear over the Gulf. Key will be how fast this can organize. Firing a lot of convection this afternoon.

Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40142 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:20 pm to
ruff ro.

Hold onto your butts.
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
30949 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:26 pm to
Geaux: you got the 12z ECM Ensembles?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:29 pm to
I don't think those are out until a few hours after it makes their run.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

Geaux: you got the 12z ECM Ensembles?



I haven't seen em yet.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 2:30 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:32 pm to
By the way guys, here is a new website that has high quality euro models for free.

LINK
Posted by 9Fiddy
19th Hole
Member since Jan 2007
64121 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:39 pm to
So the euro has it hitting Destin as a TS/Cat 1 with a pressure of 972 @ 7pm Sunday night.

This trip to Gulf Shores is gonna be shite.


How on point has the euro been this season?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

How on point has the euro been this season?



Very. Right now it's the outlier though.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35634 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:46 pm to
Why is it the outlier?

The steering seems pretty straightforward. Trough opens up the door north and northeast. Initiation of the storm maybe?
Posted by tipup
Member since Sep 2005
1649 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:52 pm to
Great. Add a cold front to the yellow x and the orange x and you'll have.

LINK
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:54 pm to
Yeah but it also seems to pick up on trends faster than other computer models so it will be interesting to see if they start following the Euro.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19813 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:00 pm to
quote:


By the way guys, here is a new website that has high quality euro models for free.


Ryan Maue left WxBell and is now doing the models that site.
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
15651 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

So the euro has it hitting Destin as a TS/Cat 1 with a pressure of 972 @ 7pm Sunday night.
A pressure of 972 would equate to a strong cat 2 if I'm not mistaken.
Posted by 9Fiddy
19th Hole
Member since Jan 2007
64121 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:17 pm to
Oh


Well thanks. That's just wonderful news!


frick my life I just wanted to sit on the beach and drink beer for two damn days. That's all I asked.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:46 pm to
He's probably saying it's the outlier because it's the one pushing for it to strengthen the most and probably the model that pushes it further east. Based on the Euro track I could see it being correct in the strength though. It doesn't really interact with land while the other models take it over land before it hits the Gulf. It kinda just lingers northward in water which could strengthen it over some of the warmest water in GOM right now. Euro is actually a bad track for it.

Remember in Irma Euro was picking up on the the shifts before any other computer model did. Once it picked the trend up others started shifting westward with it. Euro has been amazing this year on accuracy as far as tracks go maybe not intensification but their tracks have been pretty damn accurate. I don't know how historically well it predicts paths in October but for this hurricane season it has done a good job.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 3:53 pm
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