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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:13 pm to 225Tyga
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:13 pm to 225Tyga
I mean why not. Mother Nature said frick you to Texas, Louisiana and Florida on the Gulf this year miles well complete that cycle and say frick you to Mississippi and Alabama.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
I leave for Gulf Shores Friday and returning Tuesday.
How fricked am I? Or does this look like it’s just gonna be hit and miss storms?
How fricked am I? Or does this look like it’s just gonna be hit and miss storms?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:16 pm to GEAUXmedic
Looks like that model is seeing something similar to Euro where it gets swept up in the front and knocked towards Florida.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:17 pm to 9Fiddy
Only model so far showing a hurricane is Euro but that could change next few days. They all seem to be in general agreement it's going to take that NE turn the issue appears to be timing based on the front and how far/fast south it makes it.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:17 pm to rds dc
Holy shite
Hurricane season dropping its nuts on us this year
Hurricane season dropping its nuts on us this year
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:19 pm to rds dc
18z SHIPS shows pretty low shear over the Gulf. Key will be how fast this can organize. Firing a lot of convection this afternoon.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:20 pm to rds dc
ruff ro.
Hold onto your butts.
Hold onto your butts.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:26 pm to GEAUXmedic
Geaux: you got the 12z ECM Ensembles?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:29 pm to loogaroo
I don't think those are out until a few hours after it makes their run.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:29 pm to loogaroo
quote:
Geaux: you got the 12z ECM Ensembles?
I haven't seen em yet.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:39 pm to GEAUXmedic
So the euro has it hitting Destin as a TS/Cat 1 with a pressure of 972 @ 7pm Sunday night.
This trip to Gulf Shores is gonna be shite.
How on point has the euro been this season?
This trip to Gulf Shores is gonna be shite.
How on point has the euro been this season?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:40 pm to 9Fiddy
quote:
How on point has the euro been this season?
Very. Right now it's the outlier though.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:46 pm to GEAUXmedic
Why is it the outlier?
The steering seems pretty straightforward. Trough opens up the door north and northeast. Initiation of the storm maybe?
The steering seems pretty straightforward. Trough opens up the door north and northeast. Initiation of the storm maybe?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:52 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/3/17 at 2:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
Yeah but it also seems to pick up on trends faster than other computer models so it will be interesting to see if they start following the Euro.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:00 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
By the way guys, here is a new website that has high quality euro models for free.
Ryan Maue left WxBell and is now doing the models that site.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:05 pm to 9Fiddy
quote:A pressure of 972 would equate to a strong cat 2 if I'm not mistaken.
So the euro has it hitting Destin as a TS/Cat 1 with a pressure of 972 @ 7pm Sunday night.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:17 pm to otowntiger
Oh
Well thanks. That's just wonderful news!
frick my life I just wanted to sit on the beach and drink beer for two damn days. That's all I asked.
Well thanks. That's just wonderful news!
frick my life I just wanted to sit on the beach and drink beer for two damn days. That's all I asked.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:46 pm to Duke
He's probably saying it's the outlier because it's the one pushing for it to strengthen the most and probably the model that pushes it further east. Based on the Euro track I could see it being correct in the strength though. It doesn't really interact with land while the other models take it over land before it hits the Gulf. It kinda just lingers northward in water which could strengthen it over some of the warmest water in GOM right now. Euro is actually a bad track for it.
Remember in Irma Euro was picking up on the the shifts before any other computer model did. Once it picked the trend up others started shifting westward with it. Euro has been amazing this year on accuracy as far as tracks go maybe not intensification but their tracks have been pretty damn accurate. I don't know how historically well it predicts paths in October but for this hurricane season it has done a good job.
Remember in Irma Euro was picking up on the the shifts before any other computer model did. Once it picked the trend up others started shifting westward with it. Euro has been amazing this year on accuracy as far as tracks go maybe not intensification but their tracks have been pretty damn accurate. I don't know how historically well it predicts paths in October but for this hurricane season it has done a good job.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 3:53 pm
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