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Posted on 10/3/17 at 3:57 pm to 9Fiddy
quote:frick it...go anyway.a bad day on vacation beats a good day at work
frick my life I just wanted to sit on the beach and drink beer for two damn days. That's all I asked.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 4:25 pm to rds dc
From James Spann
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:18 pm to biggsc
18z GFS. Cat 1/2 here. Not going to be a popular run on here. GFS painting the western solution and the Euro pointing east.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:21 pm to Duke
I'm supposed to be on Panama City Beach this weekend. I like that GFS run
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:25 pm to rds dc
quote:
970ish
Strong TS weak Cat 1 usually
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:32 pm to deltaland
I think this is going to require evacuations.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:32 pm to loogaroo
Seriously?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:38 pm to Icansee4miles
quote:
I'm supposed to be on Panama City Beach this weekend. I like that GFS run
You realize a SE LA storm would still have feeder bands crushing the panhandle right?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:38 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Seriously?
NOLA has been flooding with thunderstorms dropping and inch of rain since pumps are broken and storm drains are clogged
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:40 pm to Icansee4miles
Screw you 4miles! 
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:40 pm to deuce985
quote:
Pretty tight window on the computer models this far out. Anywhere from mouth to the Mississippi to Panama City in Florida.
Lot of disagreement on strength. So far strongest is the euro which has it roughly a possible cat 1. The rest are TD to weak TS
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:42 pm to Cosmo
Will this affect Florida this weekend or next weekend.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:42 pm to Paul Allen
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:43 pm to deltaland
Notice this starts an East movement (NNE or NE) on the last frame of the GFS. This is completely about timing. I still feel confident this will end up hooking East early enough that it hits Florida. The layout of the Gulf works such that a turn East just a half day earlier makes a huge difference in landfall.
I will get worried if the Euro shows this same scenario but I bet the GFS gives in soon enough.
I will get worried if the Euro shows this same scenario but I bet the GFS gives in soon enough.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:45 pm to 9Fiddy
Know what you mean. I'm supposed to leave Thursday afternoon on a trashy cruise out of Nola. Doesn't look good.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:46 pm to deltaland
quote:
Lot of disagreement on strength. So far strongest is the euro which has it roughly a possible cat 1. The rest are TD to weak TS
You keep saying this as if it is fact but you are wrong. 980 on the GFS is borderline Cat 2. Euro showing Cat 2 as well.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:51 pm to BigB0882
quote:
You keep saying this as if it is fact but you are wrong. 980 on the GFS is borderline Cat 2. Euro showing Cat 2 as well.
Maybe so. I was thinking Maria when she dropped down to around 980 was a TS by then. Honestly it can vary
Posted on 10/3/17 at 5:54 pm to deltaland
Yes, it can vary based on different factors but for the most part you assume 980 mb on a model runs is around a Cat 2. However, the models are horrible at intensity projections. That's why I stand by my commend that this would be weak as it approached the coast. The front coming down that will hook this east will cause it to ingest tons of dry air as it nears the coast and models rarely do well at taking that into account, I find. They will eventually see it but not for a while.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 6:01 pm to deltaland
quote:
I was thinking Maria when she dropped down to around 980 was a TS by then. Honestly it can vary
All about that pressure gradient. A tight 980 can bring Cat 1/2. A broad one a TS. Maria had a broad field of wind but at a cost of a lower top windspeed.
Think Katrina as a Cat 3 with a central pressure in the 920s vs Harvey rocking a pressure in the 940 range as a Cat 4.
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