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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 8:59 am to Mr. Hangover
Posted on 10/6/17 at 8:59 am to Mr. Hangover
quote:
Definitely wouldn’t let him get in the boat though
"calm seas, lets go for a boat ride"
1
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:01 am to Chad504boy
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:09 am to TDsngumbo
I think this is fairly new? I just noticed this big shift on spaghetti models page. From tropical tidbits. Is this old or new model runs?
Edit: never mind. Guess I just didn't see it earlier. This was 6 am correct? And y'all said they were just using he gfs data so that's why they all shifted. Carry on.
Edit: never mind. Guess I just didn't see it earlier. This was 6 am correct? And y'all said they were just using he gfs data so that's why they all shifted. Carry on.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 9:12 am
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:12 am to Fratigerguy
Dang that is quite a shift to the east.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:13 am to rds dc
From Breck's 8am post-
Your Weather Authority
quote:
FYI…TWC has Jim Cantore in Gulfport, which means they believe this guidance shift to the east will take the center nearer Gulfport. If you are inside the levee protection (risk reduction) system, I’d hold off on closing up your house since boarding up with plywood is a labor intensive process. We will have time to do that if models shift Nate back to us. Outside the levee protection, you’ll need to take precautions today as rising waters will prevent access on Saturday. For now, we hope the eastern shift continues. Next update around noon. Stay tuned.
Your Weather Authority
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:15 am to CBDTiger
Lol bob breck
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:15 am to Fratigerguy
That's a large east shift.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:17 am to Fratigerguy
Nate is currently well east of the NHC track. BUT, it is right on track with the Euro. How is this so? cause the Euro makes landfall west of the NHC track?
Nate following the Euro path:
Nate compared to the NHC track:
quote:
@ZackFradellaWx
Notice how EURO sends #Nate through Yuc Channel. It saw that current N motion last night. Multi-model consensus hurts short-term forecast.
quote:
Look at the EURO, it goes north over the Caribbean then bends back west. As the system rotates around the gyre, it will bend back west. Those other models can't "see" that because they don't have the capability to figure out small perturbations in the atmosphere.
Nate following the Euro path:
Nate compared to the NHC track:
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 9:18 am
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:23 am to Cosmo
quote:
bob breck
Trying to stay relevant when no one really gives a shite what he says.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:26 am to Cosmo
quote:
Lol bob breck
Still feeling that beat down by Nash Roberts in 1998
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:26 am to Chad504boy
I'm just happy that it's hauling arse for now.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:29 am to slackster
quote:
any idea why the 3k NAM is drastically different than the 12k and 32k versions?
ETA I understand it's not a hurricane model, but I find the huge difference to be pretty weird. 3k is much stronger and notably slower, but I'm not sure why. I thought the different runs were just different resolutions
Honestly, I don't know a whole lot about the NAMs. The 12k is the parent domain and the 3k is run within that domain over a smaller area called a nest. The 3k allows for convection. The issues are probably related to the fact that Nate is near the edge of the nest and the model is over doing convection associated with Nate.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:29 am to Chad504boy
It that projected path turns out to be correct there are several people on here who will owe Peej an apology...
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:30 am to LSURussian
quote:
It that projected path turns out to be correct there are several people on here who will owe Peej an apology
why?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:30 am to GEAUXmedic
So, that euro track would make for a stronger storm, correct?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:31 am to rds dc
Commenters on WU are downcasting this thing big time now.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:32 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Nate is currently well east of the NHC track. BUT, it is right on track with the Euro. How is this so? cause the Euro makes landfall west of the NHC track?
Nate is east, but I believe it's mainly due to the Euro initializing better. For example, the 00z EURO:
and the 06z GFS:
The 00z Euro initialized 75km to the east of where the NHC said the center of Nate was @ 00z.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:33 am to rds dc
Some convection trying to build closer to the center.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 9:33 am to rds dc
How's the system looking today? Better organized? Not as organized as thought?
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