re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...

Just saw 947 on the latest flight

Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track
forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan,
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun
southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after
36 hours.

This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate
advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATRO

This thing is gonna make a run at Cat 5. It will weaken before landfall but could still be a strong 3 or a 4 and will have an expanding wind field and massive surge

If your in Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota or anywhere near get the frick out today. I’m serious get the frick out, this isn’t one you want to play with

There is less than a 0% chance that I would consider keeping any kinds of vacation plans in this things path

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Hurricane Milton

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This thing is gonna make a run at Cat 5

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This new NHC 7am advisory has Milton reaching Cat 5 before weakening some before landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

the HAFS-A and B last night had this going to around 915-918mb maxed out if I remember.

See this was going to be my question to the Mets in the thread.

Milton will at some point be riding that H pressure ridge right into a frontal boundary. The wind sheer has been talked about ad nauseum but my question is will the wind field be further "enhanced" due to this interaction?

What part of Arkansas are you looking at? The wife and I just got back from a 3 week vacation in Arkansas and we went 2 years ago. Maybe I can tell you some things to check out. We did a lot of trails and sight seeing. Beautiful state, especially north Arkansas.

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I would wait as long as possible before canceling...maybe even waiting until Wednesday morning before pulling the plug.

I know everyone in this thread has 100% confidence in the Gospel of NWS but there is always the chance the shear starts degrading the storm's circulation more than is currently forecast and Orlando is spared a major hit. Or the forecast path could change.

If you look at the current radar in the OP you can see that a big chunk of the convection has already been blown east/northeast off of the main circulation.

Also, according to the projected path in the OP the "eye" will be just barely offshore to the north of the Yucatan which means almost all of the southern convection will be over land (of the Yucatan) for several hours. That may degrade the circulation before the center is back over open water.

So, if it doesn't cost you anything by waiting another day or so before canceling, that is what I would do.

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Problem is we have to make alternative plans to have something to do those days. The other thing that makes it difficult is getting there. We are in Houston. I have to imagine flights in general are going to be screwed up. I’m not saying there is not a chance you are correct as there is, but I believe there is some value in certainty two or three days out.