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Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:01 pm to LSU=Champions
quote:
The two new 136kt flight level readings calculate to 122.4kt / 140mph at surface level (if using a standard 0.90 reduction factor) or 118kt / 136mph at surface level (if using 0.87 reduction factor noted by Pettus).
That’s going to frick some shite up.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:01 pm to loogaroo
quote:I'm sorry if this has been discussed already but my mom lives directly on the water on the Bayside in Mirimar Beach and her husband convinced her to stay. Anyone have any projections/predictions for the bay or the circled area (her back door is 100 feet from the water)? Her house in built like a fortress but she's worried about the storm surge.
Hard to say. All of that construction is fairly new and built to withstand more than what this storm is packing right now.
Surge is going to be weird there with the mix of bluffs and lower areas.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:02 pm to loogaroo
Whatever happened to that forecast of weakening before landfall?
Ugh
Ugh
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:02 pm to lsuman25
quote:
ton of lightning in the NE and Eastern eyewall
Damn. That doesn’t indicate a weakening storm.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:03 pm to LSU=Champions
quote:
The two new 136kt flight level readings calculate to 122.4kt / 140mph at surface level (if using a standard 0.90 reduction factor) or 118kt / 136mph at surface level (if using 0.87 reduction factor noted by Pettus).
yes 90% is usually used in a major, but it’ll depend what they think will happen next
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:05 pm to Master Guilbeau
quote:
Friend of mine lives in the west end of gulf breeze and is really hard headed. Should I tell her she needs to haul arse again?
I’m begging my buddy to hit backroads west towards me in Nola. He’s in midway/Gulf Breeze but military and a hard headed SOB. Sending his pregnant wife to stay at parents farm in crestview
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:06 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Whatever happened to that forecast of weakening before landfall?
Ugh
Still expected to weaken but the outflow has been great which has allowed it to strengthen/maintain strength
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:06 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
Her house in built like a fortress but she's worried about the storm surge.
She should be. Is the home elevated?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:07 pm to northshorebamaman
Those that go to the beach around here, aren't there higher dunes along the beachfront? I know along 30A, the dunes can be 10 feet or so above sea level.
I imagine that might help mitigate the damage of storm surges.
I imagine that might help mitigate the damage of storm surges.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:07 pm to rmnldr
Right entrance to a jet. Not the first time recently weve seen storms hold strong vs dry air and shear in a good pocket of divergence.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:08 pm to BigBro
Recon deployed 2 dropsondes at that area where those highest flight level winds were observed.
Mean wind in lowest 500mb: 118kt and 113kt
I think NHC is going to have to issue an interim updated advisory increasing winds.
Mean wind in lowest 500mb: 118kt and 113kt
I think NHC is going to have to issue an interim updated advisory increasing winds.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:08 pm to SippyCup
quote:No. She has a second floor, but that's it. She is texting me telling me they should have left but her husband wouldn't leave and now the bridges are closed.
She should be. Is the home elevated?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:08 pm to LSU=Champions
They were late on the 120 from 110 increase
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:09 pm to northshorebamaman
Call an emergency service line maybe they get escorted out
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:09 pm to northshorebamaman
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:09 pm to rds dc
Hurricane wind field looks tiny, right?
That's positive
That's positive
Posted on 10/9/26 at 1:10 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
No. She has a second floor, but that's it. She is texting me telling me they should have left but her husband wouldn't leave and now the bridges are closed.
She can go east on 98 all the way to Panama City, but the Mid-Bay Bridge is still open.
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 1:12 pm
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