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re: Hurricane Isaias - Pensacola Beach to Navarre Beach Under the Gun

Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:48 am to
Posted by saturday
Pronoun (Baw)
Member since Feb 2007
8089 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Yes, some afternoon storms can be serious



This is true, but they only last about 10 minutes.
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22633 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:48 am to
Barometric pressure staying steady if not marginally strengthening though. Most recent pass was 959mb, with passes prior to that in this mission being 960, 959, 962, and 964 (in reverse order). Certainly reflective of a healthy core. Also there’s some new firing of convective bursts in the western and eastern eyewall.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
180878 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:49 am to
All hail Google AI weather storm forecaster
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
52443 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:50 am to
From now on, that's my go-to model to pay attention to
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
23218 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:51 am to
quote:

Pretty much everything points to a strong 2 or weak 3 at landfall



Dang, was hoping this thing would weaken a lot today.

Still tracking for deluge in Lexington on Saturday night? Or too early to call that?

Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
180878 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:51 am to
Who sings the song “nothing else materrrssss”
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
80545 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:52 am to
The posts people had on Monday Google showed into Pascagoula.

It is good, but was it really that much better?
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
24571 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:53 am to
quote:

The posts people had on Monday Google showed into Pascagoula. It is good, but was it really that much better?


No. Google was 1000 models. Many of which were well east of Panama City and some of which were in Alabama/ Miss. I don’t see how anyone can consider it conclusively better.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14784 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:53 am to
Shear is trying hard...looks like south of Lafayette is leading edge of stronger shear. outflow curve is almost vertical over Plaquemines Parish.

Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
180878 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:55 am to
Now where was there singular main forecasted track?
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15900 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:55 am to
quote:

The posts people had on Monday Google showed into Pascagoula. It is good, but was it really that much better?


No. Google was 1000 models. Many of which were well east of Panama City and some of which were in Alabama/ Miss. I don’t see how anyone can consider it conclusively better.


In comparison to like the Euro? GDM kicked its arse.

Hell the ICON kicked King Euros arse this go round
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 8:56 am
Posted by MKP2004
Member since Mar 2026
1202 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:56 am to
quote:

National media this morning (I'm in East TN) was sky screaming about this being one of the worst storms to ever hit the gulf coast.

fricking idiots

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21873 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:57 am to
quote:

arometric pressure staying steady if not marginally strengthening though. Most recent pass was 959mb, with passes prior to that in this mission being 960, 959, 962, and 964 (in reverse order). Certainly reflective of a healthy core. Also there’s some new firing of convective bursts in the western and eastern eyewall.


Yeah, it is still putting up VHTs, which can fight back against the shear.
Posted by RunningHog
Memphis
Member since Jul 2025
291 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:58 am to
I've been working with clients in the storm path on IT readiness. Most are not too concerned, especially if you're not right on the beaches. Power loss is a potential issue, but most of my clients have servers in data centers and should be affected.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76985 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:59 am to
quote:

Shear is trying hard...looks like south of Lafayette is leading edge of stronger shear. outflow curve is almost vertical over Plaquemines Parish.

That's one of the better satellite visualizations of a surging trough you're going to find. Clearly visible advancement.

Nice find!
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 9:00 am
Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22633 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 8:59 am to
NEZ, that’s a good view of the battle between the wind shear and dry air pushing in from the west and the core attempting to wrap convection around and warm eye. That wobble at end of the loop looks to me like the shear might just finally be making its biggest impact yet.
Posted by speedbump032
The Enterprise
Member since Sep 2015
154 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 9:01 am to
Is there a wind chart, how far do the hurricane force winds extend out?
Thanks
Posted by TheRouxGuru
Member since Nov 2019
14985 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 9:01 am to
quote:

What I always think about with these storms is how bad these things must have been for the people on the coast 100-200 years ago when there were minimal warnings


This is what I think about as well..

And dummies complain about meteorologists today
Posted by jaytothen
Member since Jan 2020
8921 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 9:02 am to
I'll give Isaias credit, he's putting up a hell of a fight considering the dry air to the west and the shear. I thought no way in hell it makes it to a major. Hopefully it's maxed out and weakening starts soon.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14784 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 9:05 am to
The hurricane force winds are only within about 30 miles of the center.

This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 9:07 am
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