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re: Hurricane Isaias - Pensacola Beach to Navarre Beach Under the Gun
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:45 pm to PGAOLDBAWNevahBroke
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:45 pm to PGAOLDBAWNevahBroke
quote:
What did the police say to that? My second home is in Walton, we were there earlier without our car bc we flew in.
They are looking for tourists. They want them all gone. Residents or property owners are free to do as they want.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:48 pm to PGAOLDBAWNevahBroke
quote:
My second home is in Walton,
What course(s) you typically play out there?
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:48 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
We’re closing the OB and GS Waffle Houses tonight at 9.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:51 pm to Water
quote:
We’re closing the OB and GS Waffle Houses tonight at 9.
FYI, the EMA/FEMA Waffle House scale is unofficially officially real, but it has to do with how well the Waffle Houses are up and running following landfall. Full power and full menu......good to go. No Waffle House and just a concrete slab? No bueno. They have an actual scale.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:52 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Haven't been keeping up today but is it fair to say the AI was better with this since Monday and pretty much nailed it?
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:54 pm to EZVictor
quote:
Try being right on the Sound in Midway…had just moved here when we got nailed by Ivan with 13’ of water just tickling our floorboards on the living level. Then, less than a year later…here comes Dennis. Got a reprieve when Katrina hit MS - only got 5’ of water (and muck) in lower level then. Things were good for a bit - we got lucky with Michael and a few others. Then Sally decides to come form a visit and hits Gulf Shores - we only got 3.5’ water and muck below that time. Kinda starting to get tired of all of these unwanted visitors, but hey - ya gotta pay your dues when you choose to live in “paradise”, I guess. But whoever said 30A should throw themselves on the sword and open their doors to one of these visitors instead of us for a change, ain’t wrong !
My aunt and her husband just moved there spring '25. On a canal on the sound. She's worried.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:56 pm to Funky Tide 8
Posted on 10/8/26 at 5:57 pm to LegendInMyMind
It's still popping off fresh towers in the northern half and trying to wrap up, despite the messy appearance on visual satellite.
The overnight battle between wind shear and vortical force will really determine a lot here. From a scientific perspective, it's fascinating to watch and could be the difference between a weak Cat 1/strong TS at landfall that has minimal impacts (affects for that JoeBrown douchebag) vs. actual hurricane at landfall with widespread damage
I only wish I didn't have actual skin in the game this time
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:00 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
The overnight battle between wind shear and vortical force will really determine a lot here. From a scientific perspective, it's fascinating to watch and could be the difference between a weak Cat 1/strong TS at landfall that has minimal impacts (affects for that JoeBrown douchebag) vs. actual hurricane at landfall with widespread damage
Since you hit on it, this is a good post from yesterday. Andy does a good job of explaining what is going on with this storm.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. ETA: There are examples of storms that both bomb out despite these conditions and those that struggle.
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 6:02 pm
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:07 pm to OU Guy
quote:
Dangerous next 24 hours ahead as the hurricane sits over the deep and warm "Loop Currrent" and the same area that powered history's most intense storms.
I was wondering when we would get to the loop current fear porn
I guess Mets haven’t had much this season to get worked up over so they’ll milk this one dry
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:11 pm to deltaland
Exactly. This will be a low end category two or possibly a category one.
Without the shear this would be a concerning storm. With it, the people in its path will be good if they’re aware and prepared.
Honestly at this stage the tornado threat for east Alabama and west Georgia Saturday is the real concern.
Without the shear this would be a concerning storm. With it, the people in its path will be good if they’re aware and prepared.
Honestly at this stage the tornado threat for east Alabama and west Georgia Saturday is the real concern.
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
ETA: There are examples of storms that both bomb out despite these conditions and those that struggle.
This is why I’m always amazed at people who predict things with absolute certainty. None of us have any idea. Educated guesses are great, but I’ve been through too many to ever act like I know what’s gonna happen. Just pray it’s not bad and hold on.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:14 pm to AHM21
Oh without the shear this one would pushed towards a 5
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:19 pm to AU_251
quote:
This is why I’m always amazed at people who predict things with absolute certainty. None of us have any idea. Educated guesses are great, but I’ve been through too many to ever act like I know what’s gonna happen. Just pray it’s not bad and hold on.
this is basically what I've been telling people all week that have texted me or called me saying "its headed right for you!"
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:19 pm to deltaland
Yeah. This would absolutely be a monster without it.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:24 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
weak Cat 1/strong TS at landfall that has minimal impacts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:24 pm to Hateradedrink
Since the game has been the focus nationally - Tuscaloosa looks to get 2-3 inches of rain, 40-50 mph winds overnight tomorrow with the rain moving out before 8 am Saturday
Winds steady at 20 mph throughout the day Saturday but by 6:30 clear and good to go
Winds steady at 20 mph throughout the day Saturday but by 6:30 clear and good to go
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 6:26 pm
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:26 pm to NorthEndZone
HAFS-A
Peak = 135 mph and 956 mb
Near Landfall = 125 mph and 970 mb (Orange Beach - 7 PM Friday)
(weakens rapidly to 65 mph and 985 mb 3 hours later - seems unrealistic but that is what model showed)
HAFS-B
Peak = 120 mph and 950 mb
Near Landfall = 105 mph and 969 mb (Perdido Key - 7 PM Friday)
HMON
Peak = 130 mph and 952 mb
Near Landfall = 80 mph and 977 mb (Navarre Beach - 7 PM Friday)
HWRF
Peak = 123 mph and 961 mb
Near Landfall = 105 mph and 969 mb (Navarre Beach - 7 PM Friday)
These are from 18Z model runs today and are subject to change.
All peak at Cat 3/Low Cat 4 but weaken fairly rapidly at some point afterward.
Timing is now very close for landfall at ~8 to 10 PM Friday.
Peak = 135 mph and 956 mb
Near Landfall = 125 mph and 970 mb (Orange Beach - 7 PM Friday)
(weakens rapidly to 65 mph and 985 mb 3 hours later - seems unrealistic but that is what model showed)
HAFS-B
Peak = 120 mph and 950 mb
Near Landfall = 105 mph and 969 mb (Perdido Key - 7 PM Friday)
HMON
Peak = 130 mph and 952 mb
Near Landfall = 80 mph and 977 mb (Navarre Beach - 7 PM Friday)
HWRF
Peak = 123 mph and 961 mb
Near Landfall = 105 mph and 969 mb (Navarre Beach - 7 PM Friday)
These are from 18Z model runs today and are subject to change.
All peak at Cat 3/Low Cat 4 but weaken fairly rapidly at some point afterward.
Timing is now very close for landfall at ~8 to 10 PM Friday.
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 6:27 pm
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:29 pm to AHM21
Reid should invest in a submarine to go out in the eye and ride it home to shore if he wants some science
Posted on 10/8/26 at 6:31 pm to SippyCup
quote:
Just got a call from my neighbor. Walton county police just knocked on his door telling him he is under mandatory evac and has 2 hours to pack up and leave. He told them he is resident and to GTF. Apparently they are going door to door throughout the hood.
No, he didn’t.
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