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Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:38 pm to rocket31
What is causing the AI google models to skew so hard east? Compared to everything else?
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:39 pm to baldona
quote:
What is causing the AI google models to skew so hard east? Compared to everything else?
they got shifted by a hooker in Panama City beach this one time
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:39 pm to baldona
quote:
What is causing the AI google models to skew so hard east? Compared to everything else?
It doesn’t know it’s supposed to scare the areas with largest population to get more views.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:40 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
It doesn’t know it’s supposed to scare the areas with largest population to get more views.
So, so true...
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:44 pm to LSU=Champions
quote:
LSU=Champions
Thank you sir.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:49 pm to Funky Tide 8
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:52 pm to AHM21
Hell Yeah. That’s the good stuff. That’s when you know shite is getting real.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:52 pm to Tigahs24Seven
quote:
So, so true...
always start with a banger hitting nola and go from there!
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:53 pm to AHM21
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:59 pm to rds dc
quote:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
...ISAIAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 92.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis
* East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:00 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Satellite and aircraft data show that Isaias continues to
strengthen. GOES-19 imagery indicates that a central dense overcast
has formed, and the system has become more symmetric than this
morning. The peak NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 700-mb winds
were 61 kt, with the pressure dropping to 994 mb. The initial
intensity is set to 55 kt as a reflection of this data.
Isaias is basically on track, moving east-northeast at 7 kt. There
is no change to the synoptic reasoning as a deepening trough along
the northwestern Gulf Coast and a strengthening Atlantic subtropical
ridge should cause the system to move faster to the northeast
tomorrow and northward on Friday. As long as the cyclone remains
intact, it makes physical sense that the system will move on the
faster and eastward side of the guidance due to the stronger shear
Isaias should encounter near landfall. Thus, the new forecast is
adjusted slightly to the east, closer to the AI-based and
corrected-consensus models.
NOAA radar data (P3-TDR) show that the system is experiencing some
southwesterly shear, with tilt analyses displaying the mid-level
circulation displaced 5-10 n mi to the northeast of the low-level
center. This structure seems sufficient for further intensification
given a continuation of similar low or moderate shear and very warm
SSTs in a very humid environment. Models are fairly consistent
about the shear increasing on Friday, but almost all guidance still
shows a category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall. While the regional
hurricane models have generally come down on the peak intensity this
cycle, it is unknown whether this is the start of a real trend, and
we would prefer to see more than one guidance cycle before making
any adjustments. The new forecast is close to the previous one,
near the high side of the model suite.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:02 pm to AHM21
Yet another shift East?
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:03 pm to LSUlefty
Yea Mississippi is barely in the cone now
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:04 pm to LSUlefty
10 mile east shift of center of cone. Now east end of Perdido Key (Johnson Beach for those familiar).
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:05 pm to AHM21
Dummy here with a question.
I live 80 miles due north of Baton Rouge.
If this storm does make landfall around Pensacola, is my area far enough away to miss most of the high winds?
I live 80 miles due north of Baton Rouge.
If this storm does make landfall around Pensacola, is my area far enough away to miss most of the high winds?
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:07 pm to 308
You will miss all of the wind. Unless you consider 15mph gusts wind.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:07 pm to 308
Is this your first storm?
Posted on 10/7/26 at 4:10 pm to baldona
quote:
What is causing the AI google models to skew so hard east? Compared to everything else?
Don’t believe this false narrative that the AI Google models are the only ones showing this greater eastern solution. Also, the NHC official forecast always considers everything.
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