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Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:32 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
So if I'm understanding it correctly, the spaghetti model/plots from the 1:00pm cst run should be out this evening around 7:30pm
I know the forecast is still honed in on Gulf Shores, this just is so hard to ignore since it's the EURO.
yeah that's why I'm confused over those as well. We are like 72 hours out and those models are showing a completely different thing than the NHC or even operational non-ensembles
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:33 pm to LSU=Champions
quote:
The first image is from yesterday afternoon (Oct 6, 12z).
Google says 12z October 6 was October 6 at 7:00am cst.
Edit: Jesus fricking Christ man, I must be going cross eyed looking at this stuff. Just realized I was thinking today is Occtober 6 lol. I need a break
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:34 pm to LSU=Champions
quote:
The first image is from yesterday afternoon (Oct 6, 12z).
The second image is from this morning (Oct 7, 06z).
I really wish we'd start using american time instead of universal time
and I'd be more conscious of said dates
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:38 pm to gaetti15
Going to suck for Alabama Baws if the GFS is right and that tropical storm hits southern cal
Media will act like Isaias didn’t happen
Media will act like Isaias didn’t happen
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:40 pm to 03 West CoChamps
quote:
I feel like the NHC is guessing at this point.
Or, it is using all available data — including models and tangible, real world data— accounting for known model biases and issuing an actual forecast.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:41 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
I’ll suck your dick if we get a hurricane this week.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:41 pm to SippyCup
quote:
Anything is better than last season
Facts. Got people driving on old Highway 6 in what is normally the Dillon Reservoir.
Hoping we get some snow down next week. A cold week and some natural and Abasin will be open before too long. Wouldnt complain about some october laps.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:43 pm to Dire Wolf
Last dropsonde for this recon flight clocked a true pressure at 996mb. Essentially stable (997 > 997 > 996) for entirety of mission, which spanned nearly 2.5 hours across the 3 center drops.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I feel like the NHC is guessing at this point.
Or, it is using all available data — including models and tangible, real world data— accounting for known model biases and issuing an actual forecast.
shhhhh people don't know modeling and statistics is literally the science of guessing
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:45 pm to Dire Wolf
Looking like Gulf Shores is ground zero.
Baked ham for The Florabama.
Baked ham for The Florabama.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:46 pm to 03 West CoChamps
quote:
I feel like the NHC is guessing at this point
theyre always guessing but its a VERY educated guess.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:47 pm to Duke
quote:
Hoping we get some snow down next week. A cold week and some natural and Abasin will be open before too long. Wouldnt complain about some october laps.
Was just looking earlier. Seems you all have a chance for it.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:53 pm to 03 West CoChamps
quote:The Euro and AI are opposite points of entry by 200 miles, NHC splitting the difference seems more reasonable at this point.
So the Euro is saying New Orleans is getting a direct hit but AI is saying Pensacola. NHC is splitting the middle. I feel like the NHC is guessing at this point.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:53 pm to LegendInMyMind
Question? I think the Z stands for time relating to meridian? What time is 12z in relation to EST?
Also, they need to name a storm after Levi.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:55 pm to nuwaydawg
quote:
Question? I think the Z stands for time relating to meridian? What time is 12z in relation to EST?
I think CST is 5+, so I'mma say 6+
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:55 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
Going to suck for Alabama Baws if the GFS is right and that tropical storm hits southern cal
Unbelievable....I am supposed to fly out to San Diego tomorrow and will be there until Tuesday.
Damn storms are going to hit me here in Fairhope, and while in CA.
What are the odds of that happening?
Posted on 10/7/26 at 2:56 pm to EasternShoreTider
nice
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:00 pm to gaetti15
quote:
I think CST is 5+, so I'mma say 6+
Woof. Central is -5, Eastern is -4 this time of year.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 3:01 pm to The Boat
Correct. Central time zone is -5 hours from UTC since we’re in daylight savings time.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 3:02 pm
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