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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:02 pm to upgrayedd
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:02 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
ou think they didn't take it seriously or they didn't expect it to intensify just before landfall?
I don't think they took it seriously from a planning standpoint. They were up shite creek most of the night.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:03 pm to CidCock
quote:
That run looks like it weakens significantly before making it to SC, yes?
It'll depend on how long it stays over FL. If the eye skirts the coast then SC if fricked.
*Going by the current model.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:04 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
I don't believe that for a minute. If the pressure is that low, this thing will be a Category 5.
Alternatively, if the winds are "only" 135 mph, then the pressure probably won't be that low. Intensity 6 days out is problematic.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:04 pm to Pedro
quote:wiki article with links to different oscilations
it plays into climate cycles with oscilations and shite if i remeber right. I dont remmebert the exact terminalogy (probs rds territory again) since i hated climatology but it plays into the same thing that causes el nino/la nina just on a larger/longer scale.
LINK
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:04 pm to Pedro
quote:
it plays into climate cycles with oscilations and shite if i remeber right. I dont remmebert the exact terminalogy (probs rds territory again) since i hated climatology but it plays into the same thing that causes el nino/la nina just on a larger/longer scale.
Makes sense to me.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:07 pm to Loungefly85
Odds this gets into the gulf?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:08 pm to rds dc
quote:
Gulf Threat
Just noticed the thread title change
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:08 pm to AU24
quote:
I just got a bad feeling this is going to end up in the GOM. It just keeps heading more west each day
I'd put money on this scenario. First it was going out to sea, then upper EC, lower EC, up FL's arse and next will be the GOM.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:08 pm to AU24
If Irma doe what the models say and goes North through Miami all the way to Jacksonville then people will have nowhere to evacuate to. All of Florida outside the western portion of the panhandle will have major hurricane conditions. I don't know how many people live in Florida but you are looking at a massive evacuation order with nowhere safe to go that isn't hundreds of miles away
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:08 pm to phil good
quote:
bet Jeff and crew are eastbound and down
He live on periscope right now talking about it. I signed up for Jeff notifications.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:09 pm to Rakim
Man every store in palm beach county sold out of water and plywood already lol. Wonder if Ill get the house I'm supposed to close on next month for cheaper if it doesn't have a roof.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:09 pm to slackster
quote:
Alternatively, if the winds are "only" 135 mph, then the pressure probably won't be that low.
This is very true. But the models have been starting to line up on the pressure inside the storm at landfall and most of them are saying sub-900. I just don't see the storm being that "weak" with a pressure that low if those predictions hold.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:10 pm to Rakim
i would say low end right now but certainty on anything with this seems to be low right now. theres alot of different factors that could go alot of different ways right now
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:11 pm to slackster
quote:
Jeff and crew don't take Irma as lightly as they did Harvey.
Jeff has been chasing storms for 35 years. He knows whats up.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:11 pm to slackster
quote:
Ahh, gotcha.
Cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean are insane. Typhoon Tip had 10 minute sustained winds of 160 mph. Think about that for a minute.
In Pacific you are looking at 400 ft of warm arse water for those storms to draw on in many cases.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:12 pm to purplepylon
quote:
If Irma doe what the models say and goes North through Miami all the way to Jacksonville then people will have nowhere to evacuate to. All of Florida outside the western portion of the panhandle will have major hurricane conditions. I don't know how many people live in Florida but you are looking at a massive evacuation order with nowhere safe to go that isn't hundreds of miles away
You're also dealing with people who evacuated for Matthew last year and it was mostly a dud along the FL peninsula.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:12 pm to RollTide1987
quote:Doubtful it's that high, but certainly gusts of 165 -175 wouldn't be a surprise.
Wind speeds will be close to 200 MPH
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:13 pm to Pedro
I don't doubt the models especially when most are in agreement but that straight northern track is unusual to me. It hits Cuba and takes the entire state of Florida up to Carolinas.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:13 pm to Chuker
quote:
Jeff has been chasing storms for 35 years. He knows whats up.
Sure, but they took refuge in a car wash that lost its roof. Their plan was shoddy.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:14 pm to Rakim
Florida peninsula is fricked.
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