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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:22 am to
Posted by Hangover Haven
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
33439 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Yea, Katrina ruined my confidence in tracks. I'm off to check the generator...


That trough coming down is going to keep us in the clear... Fingers crossed...
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:22 am to
gets out into the Atlantic and makes a 2nd landfall at the GA/SC border
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:23 am to
12z GFS:

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:23 am to
quote:

That trough coming down is going to keep us in the clear... Fingers crossed...

timing is everything
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51650 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:27 am to
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:36 am
Posted by CidCock
Member since Sep 2007
Member since Feb 2011
8692 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:27 am to
That run looks like it weakens significantly before making it to SC, yes?

What a mess, there aren't many good options left.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:28 am to
I think the main anxiety with this hurricane is it has a massive amount of uncertain tracks to it. When you see that smaller cone on margin of era 7 days out it usually is a good sign atmospheric conditions are progressing as the models saw and most are agreeing. When a system like this has some major complications in it that the models were not projecting then you see a drastic shift it causes plenty of uneasy feelings. Especially for Louisiana because we've seen many Hurricanes have projected paths change overnight that went right up our dickhole when we weren't even close to margin of era 24 hours before.

This storm could do anything 7 days out. I'd feel more comfortable by Wednesday/Thursday if the models stop projecting more westward tracks. As Levi said last night, it's possible the storm could see a faster shift North making a drastic shift to the East happen.

Regardless, looking at these paths Baham is in trouble and someone in the US is going to get it BAD. I don't wish it on anyone...awful season. I agree with person above who said stop looking at computer models. Gives me anxiety even when I'm not in the path.
Posted by CarolinaGamecock99
Member since Apr 2015
24812 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:29 am to
That would wipe south Florida off the face of the earth
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:29 am to
That's just my uneducated opinion as I'm definitely not qualified to talk about these hurricanes. Nobody listen to me.
Posted by Wildcat In Germany
Metro Atlanta
Member since May 2017
3094 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:29 am to
quote:

Down to 890 mb at 6am Sunday. shite a fricking brick!


For comparison, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, that went through the Keys, had a low pressure of 892 mb.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:30 am
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:31 am to
What was Katrina's pressure when it approached Louisiana for comparison?
Posted by CidCock
Member since Sep 2007
Member since Feb 2011
8692 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:34 am to
902
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46353 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:34 am to
quote:

That would wipe south Florida off the face of the earth


It would be bad but not wipe them out. Lots of building code upgrades have made those homes much safer than 13 years ago
Posted by Wildcat In Germany
Metro Atlanta
Member since May 2017
3094 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:35 am to
quote:

What was Katrina's pressure when it approached Louisiana for comparison?


I'm not sure about on it's approach to LA, but it's lowest mb during the entire life of it was 902 mb.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:36 am to
Katrina was 920mb at landfall in Buras
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:38 am to
this GFS has Irma still at 980mb up by the Great Lakes
Posted by Hangover Haven
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
33439 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:38 am to
quote:

It would be bad but not wipe them out. Lots of building code upgrades have made those homes much safer than 13 years ago


Actually, I think Andrew helped with that...
Posted by Tesla
the Laurentian Abyss
Member since Dec 2011
9146 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:38 am to
quote:

It would be bad but not wipe them out. Lots of building code upgrades have made those homes much safer than 13 years ago



My store is rated to 140mph....but I sure don't want to prove it.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49380 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:40 am to
For people in the know, why were there so many powerful storms in the 1960s and 1970s? I was just reading an article on the most powerful tropical cyclones and almost all of them were in the 1960s and 1970s.
Posted by CidCock
Member since Sep 2007
Member since Feb 2011
8692 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:41 am to
Al Gore
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