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Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:42 am to Antonio Moss
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:42 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
For people in the know, why were there so many powerful storms in the 1960s and 1970s? I was just reading an article on the most powerful tropical cyclones and almost all of them were in the 1960s and 1970s.
I'm not saying it was hippies... but it was hippies
1
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:43 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
For people in the know, why were there so many powerful storms in the 1960s and 1970s?
It was them damn ruskies
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:43 am to CarolinaGamecock99
quote:
That would wipe south Florida off the face of the earth
The 12z run was worse for south Florida than the 6z run. I know the run to run variations aren't all that important, but if a south FL landfall is imminent, no interaction with Cuba is a huge problem. The previous run had it getting down to 895 mb, but due to interaction with Cuba, max winds were only 125 mph. With less interaction, there is little to inhibit Irma.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:44 am to rt3
quote:
For people in the know, why were there so many powerful storms in the 1960s and 1970s? I was just reading an article on the most powerful tropical cyclones and almost all of them were in the 1960s and 1970s.
Normal pattern changes. The Earth cycles, things change... It's all normal, it will happen again one day.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:47 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
For people in the know, why were there so many powerful storms in the 1960s and 1970s? I was just reading an article on the most powerful tropical cyclones and almost all of them were in the 1960s and 1970s.
Not really sure what you're reading, at least in the Atlantic Basin.
11 of the 23 storms with pressure below 925mb occurred since 1992.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:50 am to slackster
The article I was looking was globally with most cyclones occurring in the Eastern Hemisphere.
I know it was some climate cycle; I'm just wondering the details of the cycle and how often it's expected to occur.
I know it was some climate cycle; I'm just wondering the details of the cycle and how often it's expected to occur.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:51 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
For people in the know, why were there so many powerful storms in the 1960s and 1970s? I was just reading an article on the most powerful tropical cyclones and almost all of them were in the 1960s and 1970s.
It's rather cylical and there's generally a corresponding inverse increase or decrease in the Western Pacific for Atlantic activity. We've been quiet since 2005-2006, and the WPac has been a super typhoon producing machine.
The details of these cycles arent extremely well understood but generally it's a combo of warm waters in a basin and upper level wind patterns. Recently Atlantic storms have been sheared to death despite warm waters. The WPac hasn't seen the same shear and we've seen some incredibly powerful cyclones.
More on this is in rds or bay territory.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:53 am
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:52 am to HubbaBubba
That 12z run is horrifying for Miami. A sub-900mb hurricane hitting a major metropolitan area. Wind speeds will be close to 200 MPH.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:55 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
The article I was looking was globally with most cyclones occurring in the Eastern Hemisphere.
I know it was some climate cycle; I'm just wondering the details of the cycle and how often it's expected to occur.
Ahh, gotcha.
Cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean are insane. Typhoon Tip had 10 minute sustained winds of 160 mph. Think about that for a minute.
Then think about it for another 9 minutes.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:55 am to RollTide1987
Yeah, I'd be getting the hell out of there right now
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:57 am to RollTide1987
quote:
That 12z run is horrifying for Miami. A sub-900mb hurricane hitting a major metropolitan area. Wind speeds will be close to 200 MPH.
FWIW, the 12z GFS got the pressure down to 893 mb, and the wind speeds were 135 mph.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:57 am to GEAUXT
I bet Jeff and crew are eastbound and down. This is going to be an intense periscope broadcast whenever and wherever this thing makes landfall.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:59 am to phil good
Jeff's crew is probably rethinking their compensation package
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:59 am to slackster
quote:
Typhoon Tip had 10 minute sustained winds of 160 mph.
And strongest cyclone on record in terms of pressure with 872 mb.
This article has Typoon Nancy had #1 with sustained winds at 213 mph.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:00 pm to phil good
quote:
I bet Jeff and crew are eastbound and down. This is going to be an intense periscope broadcast whenever and wherever this thing makes landfall.
I bet Jeff and crew don't take Irma as lightly as they did Harvey.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:00 pm to Duke
it plays into climate cycles with oscilations and shite if i remember right. I dont remember the exact terminalogy (probs rds territory again) since i hated climatology but it plays into the same thing that causes el nino/la nina just on a larger/longer scale.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:01 pm to slackster
quote:
FWIW, the 12z GFS got the pressure down to 893 mb, and the wind speeds were 135 mph.
I don't believe that for a minute. If the pressure is that low, this thing will be a Category 5.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:01 pm to slackster
quote:
I bet Jeff and crew don't take Irma as lightly as they did Harvey.
You think they didn't take it seriously or they didn't expect it to intensify just before landfall?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:02 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
This article has Typoon Nancy had #1 with sustained winds at 213 mph.
FWIW...
quote:
A reconnaissance aircraft flying into the typhoon near its peak intensity on September 12 determined Nancy's one-minute sustained winds to be 185 knots (215 mph; 345 km/h). If these values are reliable, they would be the highest wind speeds ever measured in a tropical cyclone.[5] However, it was later determined that measurements and estimations of wind speeds from the 1940s to 1960s were excessive. Thus, Nancy's winds may actually be lower than its official best-track value
Posted on 9/4/17 at 12:02 pm to slackster
I just got a bad feeling this is going to end up in the GOM. It just keeps heading more west each day
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 12:04 pm
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