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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:10 am to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:10 am to
quote:

GFS has it completely missing Cuba,and down to 900 mb at Sunday midnight SE of the Keys.

bye bye Keys

where's our buddy who earlier in the thread announced his upcoming cruise out of NOLA to the Keys & Bahamas
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
39084 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:10 am to
quote:


Considering if Irma does track into the GOM, it likely will have to cross the length of Cuba to get there, doesn't this help weaken it substantially? At least knock it down from major hurricane status?
it'll definitely weaken it some but the gulf is a powder keg at the moment and any weakening wouldn't be enough to completely tear up the system unless it decided to track slowly over the island. Any weakening would likely quickly be erased once it entered the gulf due to the warm temperatures. If it were to get into the gulf it would likely ramp up really quickly again.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:10 am to
The system interacting with it now is the main reason this storm hasn't become a fish storm. That's what Levi said. He said it probably would've already steered itself northward. Makes sense. Sucks.
Posted by RougeDawg
Member since Jul 2016
7575 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:11 am to
Yea, Katrina ruined my confidence in tracks. I'm off to check the generator...

Posted by beaver
The 755 Club
Member since Sep 2009
46861 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:11 am to
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51650 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:12 am to
quote:

bye bye Keys
Down to 890 mb at 6am Sunday. shite a fricking brick!
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:12 am to
Hurricane that hit Florida last year did exactly that.
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
70990 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:14 am to
This is setting up to be a catastrophic event.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:14 am to
quote:

Down to 890 mb at 6am Sunday. shite a fricking brick!

don't think there will be a football game in Miami on Sunday
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:15 am
Posted by beaver
The 755 Club
Member since Sep 2009
46861 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:15 am to


landfall
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51650 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:15 am to
888 Mb as it comes into Miami at 6pm Sunday. shite! Still sitting there six hours later! Stalls!
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:17 am
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:15 am to
hard right turn right up the butt of the FL peninsula in this GFS run
Posted by ihometiger
Member since Dec 2013
12475 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:17 am to
NFL ratings will be shittier than they are already if it hits on a Sunday
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:17 am to
quote:

Yea, Katrina ruined my confidence in tracks.


To be fair, that was 12 years ago, and where it made landfall was still inside of the cone, so...
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:17 am to
That would be bad.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:18 am to
quote:

shite! Still sitting there six hours later! Stalls!



Umm, no, it doesn't.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21447 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:18 am to
This 12z GFS run was a step back towards the OTS solution with some minor changes in the H5 pattern as the storm approaches Cuba. Hopefully, that is a trend across the models today.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51650 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:18 am to
Still a Cat 4/5 sitting over West Palm Beam. The entire Eastern coast of Florida is going to be destroyed if this holds true
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:20 am to
quote:

It is hard for me to not be nervous. These storms rarely make such a drastic turn north.




I know it feels that way, but this was just last year...



Look at how many storms essentially stopped in their tracks and turned north or northeastward.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51650 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:21 am to
quote:

Umm, no, it doesn't.
Okay.. it slows incredibly down and moves real slow compared to previous motion.
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