re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Yeah beaver, a sub 900 into a major metro is about as worst case as it gets. I'd still caution taking those absurd GFS pressures as a likely scenario but damn it if it hasn't been consistent with it.

So far with the new model runs it's certainly set up where SE Florida has the most possibility of impact. In terms of spread from there, the Euro ensambles is pitching me an eastern bias to potential impacts. I'd put the Carolinas second in line for US impacts and then farther down it slipping into the Gulf and riding in toward Tampa or the panhandle.

It must be emphasized how fluid the forecast on approach to US still is.

For our La and Tx posters, I'm not worried about us at all. There's a small small risk the models have really fricked up the steering and it comes way west, but the most logical answer is the models have the general idea right and it's an east coast storm.

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Considering if Irma does track into the GOM, it likely will have to cross the length of Cuba to get there, doesn't this help weaken it substantially? At least knock it down from major hurricane status?

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Would definitely weaken it but if goes into the GOM it'll go right back to major status shortly after

Cuba does seem to tear storms up.

Here's a great video from Levi that he posted yesterday LINK

It's outdated as the tracks changed substantially today but he clearly explains why it's moving more westward in the models and south on projected paths. The low seems to be much stronger than projected and is pushing the storm more southward which is both bad and good depending on who you are. He says the trough is getting interacted with from the westward in the models which throws a ton of uncertainly towards the system now which is why you have such a drastic change in models today. A slight change on where the trough moves shift is 50 miles east/west.

It will be interesting to see what he says in an updated video. I would say Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi definitely need to eye this system hard because it could hit us too based on what he's saying. The models have not done a good job projecting the future conditions steering this storm which is why they keep pushing westward. Seems to be a complicated situation. On the positive side for Louisiana he has a system pushing down to us that could help keep it away but as I said above, seems timing is everything here.

tl;dr don't rely on models past a few days out. If you're on Gulf Coast/East Coast prepare. The margin of era is huge and probably won't be sorted out for at least another several days to get a good idea on conditions.

Levi said in the video above the reason models are still seeing that is because when the trough that interacts with it westward pushing it more towards the east coast it could be strong enough to immediately steer the storm northward but as he said, it's too hard to project right now.

It would seem that the further South it goes on the track is bad for Gulf of Mexico because it could miss the trough. Also, seems to depend on how much more powerful that system is that pushes against it now and is keeping it from gaining too much more strength. That's what seems to be steering it more South because it was not projected to be that strong.

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ECMWF is still showing East Coast...I wonder what they know that other models aren't reflecting.

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Next run won't come out until around 1. Euro unfortunately only runs twice a day. 0Z and 12Z. That said, the 12z GFS is running right now.

It is hard for me to not be nervous. These storms rarely make such a drastic turn north.

That makes sense. Still 7 days until projected CONUS landfall but it's full-assed panic on the Treasure Coast right now. The wall to wall Harvey coverage definitely has people's attention, even though it's largely a different threat.

this GFS is still south of yesterday's 12z GFS but does notch a touch north of 06z

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Next run won't come out until around 1. Euro unfortunately only runs twice a day. 0Z and 12Z. That said, the 12z GFS is running right now.

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Thanks

People are moving their big boats to Louisiana & Mississippi right now. Flew over Tampa this morning and it was an armada of boats heading to La/Miss