re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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Still a decent split for it being so close, but it's pretty dialed in on cutting right up the middle of Florida.

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Hard to argue against a blend of the Euro and NHC. However, at this range, the Euro will often pickup trends before the EPS does. So, if the Euro shifts west again at 00z, then I would expect the EPS to play catch up at 00z.

The EURO ensembles don't really seem to have shifted that far west to justify that big of a jump in the operational model.

But I am definitely no expert.

Time to get sandbags

120 can eat a bag of dicks

A quick note on the ensembles, the Euro EPS has more members and tends to be overly dispersive while the GEFS has less members and tends to be under dispersive. So the fact that we are still seeing a lot of spread in the GEFS highlights the amount of uncertainty still out there. Also, the 12z Euro track would fit nicely withing the 12z GEFS spread, so it really isn't a crazy shift. Another way to use ensembles is clustering, bias correction and other calibration methods to tease out trends within the ensemble data.

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120 can eat a bag of dicks

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which one?

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Looks like Irma has undergone repeated eye wall replacement cycles over the last 24 hours. Explains the increase in pressure and drop in wind speeds.

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Doesn't that harbinger an increase in strength?

It's like standing at a roulette wheel.....

Sorry for the uneducated post. No hurricane experience, hillbilly here. I have a condo booked in Destin for the 16th, if Irma tracks on it's predicted path, will it still be business as usual by that date for that area?