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Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 am to MarcusQuinn
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 am to MarcusQuinn
quote:
He took the term "leveled" literally. Because areas have been literally leveled by hurricanes. It's not like saying "blown off the map." It's happened. Major damage and an area being "leveled" are not the same. It's inaccurate and words matter. Specifics matter. A hurricane discussion isn't the place for hyperbole.
Pictures from Homestead (Andrew) look awfully similar to the ones coming out over the last few days.
A person can take a overhead shot of one neighborhood removed from foundation and others not.
Homestead for Andrew had homes wiped from foundations and some still standing. Heck a poster posted pictures of it.
We have not seen a Hurricane in the last 20 years completely remove a city from the map.
Not even Katrina.
2
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 am to 50_Tiger
Specifically for Irma, the GFS has struggled significantly out past the day four point. Per somebody running the mean track error out with time over at storm2k who graphed it last night.
In that last timeframe, the CMC was doing better but not for days 1-4. Granted it says nothing for intensity and doesnt really account for just how off the CMC has been even farther out than 5 of 6 days.
The Euro, unsurprisingly, is crushing all the other models in terms of accuracy.
In that last timeframe, the CMC was doing better but not for days 1-4. Granted it says nothing for intensity and doesnt really account for just how off the CMC has been even farther out than 5 of 6 days.
The Euro, unsurprisingly, is crushing all the other models in terms of accuracy.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 am to slackster
quote:Sorry for all the questions but I dont see a Euro option on tropical tidbits just HWRF, HMON, GFS and CMC
The GFS runs every 6 hours. Small changes will have an impact when you're looking at 120+ hours away, so the 6z GFS took it back over Savannah.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 am to MarcusQuinn
Can someone just level with us
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 am to Duke
Next hurricane season it will be the EURO model Sponsored by BMW 
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 am to Tiger in NY
quote:
A Hurricane named Lee. All hell is gonna break lose.
Liberals lose their minds
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 am to UncleFestersLegs
ECMWF
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:20 am to LSUBoo
quote:
St. Martin / Sint Marteen isn't exactly poor.
It definitely has a much different dynamic than Anguilla, St. Barths, and the BVI/USVI. I've read that looting has been heavy there and there has been an escalation of crime in the last several years. The hoards of cruise ship travelers make it a different destination than the other top tier Caribbean islands.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:25 am to UncleFestersLegs
quote:It's the ECMWF option under the Global heading at the top
Sorry for all the questions but I dont see a Euro option on tropical tidbits just HWRF, HMON, GFS and CMC
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:25 am to ForeverLSU02
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:25 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Pictures from Homestead (Andrew) look awfully similar to the ones coming out over the last few days.
If I recall someone said, or implied, casually, that Miami was going to be completely leveled. Someone else (the idiot) said it wouldn't be "leveled" and much of the city would be damaged but standing. He called it an exaggeration. Homestead? Literally leveled.
I'm done cluttering the thread. I'll go ahead and say I'm 100% wrong so nobody feels the need to respond and correct. Back to real info.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:26 am to GEAUXmedic
That is insane
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:28 am to FairhopeTider
Holy shite that is sad. That place is obliterated
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:30 am to MarcusQuinn
Just so you know your wrong.
Two different neighborhoods in Homestead.
Looks awfully familiar to pictures posted in the thread currently.
Anyways moving along now.
Two different neighborhoods in Homestead.
Looks awfully familiar to pictures posted in the thread currently.
Anyways moving along now.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:32 am to rds dc
Rds, how long before the NHC gives more advisories in the day?
We are 72 hours out.
We are 72 hours out.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:33 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Homestead for Andrew had homes wiped from foundations and some still standing. Heck a poster posted pictures of it.
To be fair, the pictures often spread for Andrew were a trailer park that was obliterated. There was severe damage to traditional homes too, but those mobile homes were next level.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:38 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Public advisories for Atlantic tropical cyclones are normally issued every six hours at 5:00 AM EDT, 11:00 AM EDT, 5:00 PM EDT, and 11:00 PM EDT (or 4:00 AM EST, 10:00 AM EST, 4:00 PM EST, and 10:00 PM EST)
quote:
Intermediate public advisories are issued every 3 hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Additionally, special public advisories may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.
quote:
Forecast/Advisories are issued on all Atlantic and eastern Pacific tropical and subtropical cyclones every six hours at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC (learn about UTC time). Special Forecast/Advisories may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 8:41 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:40 am to rds dc
Rds, any idea where we can find the UKMET model, other than in spaghetti plots?
It seems to have done well, albeit not as well as the Euro, with Irma. It's one of the only models still suggesting a western Florida peninsula landfall.
It seems to have done well, albeit not as well as the Euro, with Irma. It's one of the only models still suggesting a western Florida peninsula landfall.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:41 am to ForeverLSU02
Thanks 02.
So probably sometime tm watches will go up for SFl correct?
So probably sometime tm watches will go up for SFl correct?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:41 am to slackster
quote:
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.
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