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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:47 am to
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:47 am to
quote:

Stephanie Abrams (nice rack btw),



Thank you for your contribution this morning

PS: I AGREE!
Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8683 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:48 am to
quote:

Wait did the Hunter drop 5k feet????????????????????


That's a drop of 15,000 feet. And that's what they do.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:49 am to
quote:

That's a drop of 15,000 feet. And that's what they do


Holy shat.

Is this gradual or a hold onto your butts meme kind of thing?
Posted by urinetrouble
Member since Oct 2007
20639 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:51 am to
quote:

I need to remember the name of that idiot poster that was bitching about how we kept using the word leveled.


Using the word leveled to describe the entire island? That would definitely be incorrect. Plenty of buildings are still standing, albeit most appeared to have sustained some damage.

Regardless of semantics, it is a crazy amount of damage and destruction.

Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:52 am to
quote:

Using the word leveled to describe the entire island? That would definitely be incorrect. Plenty of buildings are still standing, albeit most appeared to have sustained some damage.

Regardless of semantics, it is a crazy amount of damage and destruction


While I do agree. A lot of those homes will indeed be "leveled" to the foundation if they are not structurally sound.

While again semantics, those poor folks gonna need some help for a long time.
Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8683 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:52 am to
It shows you the timestamps at the bottom. It's like 10-15 mins. They have to be as low as possible in the storm to get good surface data.
Posted by Carolina_Girl
South Cackalacky
Member since Apr 2012
23973 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:53 am to
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
103988 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:54 am to
St. Martin / Sint Marteen isn't exactly poor. Neither is the Virgin Islands or St. Barts. And those places all have the backing of powerful financially strong nations.

Barbuda, on the other hand...
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52554 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:54 am to
I just wanted to chime in to thank all the gurus for their work and to say frick this storm.


Twice.

Prayers to all in its path.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:55 am to
quote:


CAT5 Hurricane Irma - Breaks World Record for Consecutive Hours at 185 mph
It shows you the timestamps at the bottom. It's like 10-15 mins. They have to be as low as possible in the storm to get good surface data.


So a dive of about 1000-1500 ft a minute. That doesn't sound too bad.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21464 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:58 am to
1-min scans of Irma

Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
16879 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:59 am to
quote:

GFS run:


I get this same track using the 00Z Thurs run but when I switch to 06z Thurs I get the older track with it plowing through Savannah and not the NC/SC border.

I dont understand

GFS
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:00 am to
The CMC has less error than the GFS this season...
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:04 am to
quote:

I get this same track using the 00Z Thurs run but when I switch to 06z Thurs I get the older track with it plowing through Savannah and not the NC/SC border.

I dont understand



The GFS runs every 6 hours. Small changes will have an impact when you're looking at 120+ hours away, so the 6z GFS took it back over Savannah.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21464 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:11 am to
quote:

The CMC has less error than the GFS this season...


Based on verification scores the CMC and NAVGEM have performed the worst and the Euro the best on Irma.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:13 am to
Fair enough. I thought I read on another weather board for the season overall Euro was tGoat and GFS was tFail.
Posted by MarcusQuinn
Member since Aug 2005
582 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:14 am to
He took the term "leveled" literally. Because areas have been literally leveled by hurricanes. It's not like saying "blown off the map." It's happened. Major damage and an area being "leveled" are not the same. It's inaccurate and words matter. Specifics matter. A hurricane discussion isn't the place for hyperbole.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21464 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:15 am to
quote:

The GFS runs every 6 hours. Small changes will have an impact when you're looking at 120+ hours away, so the 6z GFS took it back over Savannah.


While the differences aren't statistically significant, the 6z and 18z do not perform as well as the 00z and 12z beyond 24hrs. So, the new run will always be more accurate in the very beginning because of the data assimilation process but errors appear sooner and propagate faster in the off hour runs.
Posted by geauxjo
Gonzales, LA
Member since Sep 2004
15380 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:15 am to
quote:

I can’t even...


I can't either....obviously for different reasons.
Posted by MrFelixx
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2017
164 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:15 am to
quote:

1-min scans of Irma


That is fascinating.
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