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Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:11 am to StormyMcMan
Great. Now the US has to rebuild Puerto Rico only to be told to frick off ht the natives
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:12 am to lsuman25
Euro has Jose looping back south in 10 days
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:21 am to gaetti15
quote:
Run a little non-linear mixed model action with an exponential distribution
Nah man.
GAM that with an Exponential distribution and let the data fit the curves functiin. Gonna burn some extra DF, but shouldn't be a problem.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:29 am to CptBengal
Morning all. Seems the models are starting to agree on everything.
All you Tigers that live in South Florida don't ride this shite out baws.
All you Tigers that live in South Florida don't ride this shite out baws.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:33 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Euro has Jose looping back south in 10 days
Jose may turn out to be quite the little bitch when it's all said and done.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:37 am to ChopBlockOclock
quote:
Storm would probably weaken like Matthew though riding the coast like that and probably only a Cat 1 maybe Cat 2 before reaching SC/GA.
I wouldn't count on that.
Matthew was already weaker than Irma is now at this point and proximity to the US.
But I'd happily take a Cat 2 if SC/GA must take a landfall.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 6:39 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:41 am to slackster
The Euro is super impressive.
7 days ago, this is where it thought Irma would be @ 00z on Sunday:
Today this is where it thinks Irma will be @ 00z on Sunday:
7 days ago, this is where it thought Irma would be @ 00z on Sunday:
Today this is where it thinks Irma will be @ 00z on Sunday:
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:44 am to slackster
Should we just ignore the pressure projections on these models though? The Euro has Irma at 962mb in 24 hours. That just doesn't seem right.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:45 am to GetCocky11
Intensity projections are a whole different animal
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:46 am to GetCocky11
921mb confirmed by dropsonde on the last recon pass.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:47 am to GetCocky11
The latest NHC model looks like it should still be pretty strong when it makes landfall just over the SC/GA border. Still has it as a weak hurricane somewhere between Walterboro and Orangeburg.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:49 am to GetCocky11
quote:
Should we just ignore the pressure projections on these models though? The Euro has Irma at 962mb in 24 hours. That just doesn't seem right.
I think the GFS has some sort of auto-initialization that requires it to show the correct pressure of a storm when it starts, but the Euro doesn't have that. It initializes Irma with a pressure of 955, for example, when the pressure is actually 921mb. I'm not sure why the pressures are so off with the Euro - perhaps rds can clear that up.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:55 am to crispyUGA
quote:
Levi Cowan? @TropicalTidbits 3m3 minutes ago
More
Hurricane #Irma is passing close to Hispaniola. Downsloping inflow off the tall mountains could disrupt the inner core some over next 24hr.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:56 am to slackster
I just hope that TCI doesn't get that 15-20 foot storm surge. Those islands are so flat.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 6:58 am to AU24
And that chart just misses the Atlanta and Charlotte metro areas
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:00 am to ForeverLSU02
So now Jose could also hit South Florida?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:03 am to crispyUGA
quote:
Still has it as a weak hurricane somewhere between Walterboro and Orangeburg.
One thing I've noticed over the years is *typically* the NHC has overstated the strength of the hurricane (wind component only) the further inland it goes. For example, when Katrina came ashore in 05, it was estimated to still be a hurricane in Tuscaloosa. However, we only experienced gusts up to the 50 to 60 mph range, barely TS levels.
Now, of course, there are still tornado threats, flooding threats, etc. so never let your guard down.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:08 am to East Coast Band
If the storm is moving fast enough, I suppose it is possible to have hurricane strength winds 100 miles inland.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:09 am to Dalosaqy
quote:
Irma looping radar update? TIA
No good radar loops at the moment, but here is some satellite imagery:
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