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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:33 pm to
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:33 pm to
quote:

Wilma was the most recent major hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States until Hurricane Harvey made landfall in southern Texas on August 26, 2017, ending a record length of time – slightly over 11 years and 10 months – without any major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. Wilma was also the last hurricane to strike the state of Florida until Hurricane Hermine did so nearly 11 years later in 2016, another record.

I thought this was interesting.

Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the US in almost 12 years? Damn.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:33 pm to
CMC with a big shift west. Panhandle landfall.

Also running Irma out much faster than previous runs, might be worth dismissing that run for now.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:36 pm
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16919 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:34 pm to
That is insane!! I'm still not buying the intensity on this at all- but IF, (huge IF) it were to verify that would bring cat 3 winds here in Orlando being on the dirty side. Wow! Of course not to mention catastrophic damage in Miami and all points south of us!
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:37 pm
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102297 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:34 pm to




Don't be gentle on her Florida.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

most everyone agrees it won't be near 888 at landfall



Most everyone agreed Harvey wouldn't be that bad.

Having lived through Andrew in Miami, and Katrina in NOLA....and building my own time series much models....i tend to assume it's going to be bad and plan accordingly.

Will it be 888? Likely not. But probabilities are NEVER 1 or 0 in real world calculations.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

Looks a little more west than last run.



It is, slightly. It's also east of the 6z run from early this morning.
Posted by Nawlens Gator
louisiana
Member since Sep 2005
5959 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:37 pm to

I don't see any convincing atmospheric projections causing a sharp turn to the north.

Posted by LSU fan 246
Member since Oct 2005
90567 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:38 pm to
quote:

Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the US in almost 12 years? Damn.



yea doesnt exactly jive with the political weather topics


eta: we arent debating. calm the frick down
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:44 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:39 pm to
quote:

yea doesnt exactly jive with the political weather topics

leave this debate to the poli board please
Posted by AU24
Toomers Corner
Member since Dec 2014
4523 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:40 pm to
GFS model predicting 158 knot (182 mph) winds as Irma hits Florida

This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:42 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:40 pm to
939 pressure reading found
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:40 pm to
quote:

I don't see any convincing atmospheric projections causing a sharp turn to the north.



There is if that trough doubles in size, slows down, and becomes the dominant feature over the continental landmass.
Posted by List Eater
Htown
Member since Apr 2005
23700 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:41 pm to

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

CMC with a big shift west. Panhandle landfall.

Also running Irma out much faster than previous runs, might be worth dismissing that run for now.

the Canadians have had the doom & gloom model for the north Gulf for a bit

I've avoided it b/c it's been the only 1
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:42 pm to
Pushing 155 at the the wall at 890 less for landfall.

fricking brutal
Posted by tunechi
Member since Jun 2009
10574 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:45 pm to
quote:

the Canadians have had the doom & gloom model for the north Gulf for a bit

I've avoided it b/c it's been the only 1


Is it like the one AP voter who votes for the most random team as #1 just to get his name out there?
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:46 pm to
quote:

Is it like the one AP voter who votes for the most random team as #1 just to get his name out there?

yeah... but this is Canadians
Posted by HogIslandDuckman
covington
Member since Nov 2015
421 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:47 pm to
educate me for I am ignorant

what exactly makes people think this storm will make the turn north into Fla. and not continue into the GOM and male a more westerly land fall?
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
84286 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:48 pm to
quote:

what exactly makes people think this storm will make the turn north into Fla. and not continue into the GOM and male a more westerly land fall?


LINK

LINK
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 11:51 pm
Posted by tunechi
Member since Jun 2009
10574 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:49 pm to
quote:

what exactly makes people think this storm will make the turn north into Fla. and not continue into the GOM and male a more westerly land fall?




Time for me to go to bed
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