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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:14 am to Rakim
Extrabetter resolution on the GOES 16 might lead to higher T#s. They might need to recalibrate the method for the GOES 16.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:15 am to Rakim
quote:
Dvorak technique
I understand, but nothing is going to beat the actual readings from the recon plane.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:27 am to List Eater
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:35 am to slackster
Slackster
quote:
Every single GFS ensemble and all but one Euro ensemble sees a sharp turn to the north, but Nawlens Gator thinks otherwise. Good to know
Point is, these models have miss predicted the trough all along that was supposed to turn this thing north. Initially it was to circle back out to sea, then hit CT, then hit SC/NC, Ga. Now Levi even says it could enter the GOM. Point is all these models missed the trough predictions so far, and I suspect they won't all of a sudden magically figure out how to predict it. Now it's an elongated trough that's supposed to save the northern GOM. I'll hold my breath.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:40 am to toddzilla
...SEVERE HURRICANE IRMA POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSH TO COMPLETION...
2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 16.6°N 56.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 16.6°N 56.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:42 am to Nawlens Gator
quote:
Point is, these models have miss predicted the trough all along that was supposed to turn this thing north. Initially it was to circle back out to sea, then hit CT, then hit SC/NC, Ga. Now Levi even says it could enter the GOM. Point is all these models missed the trough predictions so far, and I suspect they won't all of a sudden magically figure out how to predict it. Now it's an elongated trough that's supposed to save the northern GOM. I'll hold my breath.
They "missed" it 10+ days out. The closer we get, the more accurate they're going to be. It is really that simple.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:43 am to slackster
Euro run has begun
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:44 am to Kcoyote
quote:There are plenty of $99 cases in Texas, so the supply side economists of the OT tell me.
Kcoyote
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:47 am to slackster
And how many missions worth of data were collected today to feed into the models perception of everything else going on?
I mean, 6 planes flew into that thing today for a reason. For someone to discredit all that is kinda silly.
I mean, 6 planes flew into that thing today for a reason. For someone to discredit all that is kinda silly.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 12:49 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:49 am to TigerStripes06
All of the GFS ensemble members keep it east of Destin, mostly over central Florida.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:54 am to slackster
With the data collected today, the euro probably will too. If those missions are as valuable as we think they are, they should closely agree.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:54 am to slackster
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:54 am to slackster
DUP
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 12:56 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:55 am to slackster
TRIP??
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 12:57 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:56 am to Nawlens Gator
I bet that guy has an interesting prediction!
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:56 am to rt3
From 16.7N to 16.6N and 54.9W to 56.1
Is this expected at this point(as models have indicated) or is that WSW movement worse for gulf threat?
ETA: Not panic or scaring anyone. This wobble may be totally as expected to this point.
Is this expected at this point(as models have indicated) or is that WSW movement worse for gulf threat?
ETA: Not panic or scaring anyone. This wobble may be totally as expected to this point.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 12:58 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:58 am to SomethingLikeA
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:02 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:07 am to GEAUXmedic
Based on the projected models I have seen, my area will get rain like never before seen. Obviously it's still early, but doesn't look good.
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