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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:49 pm to Nawlens Gator
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:49 pm to Nawlens Gator
quote:
I don't see any convincing atmospheric projections causing a sharp turn to the north.
Every single GFS ensemble and all but one Euro ensemble sees a sharp turn to the north, but Nawlens Gator thinks otherwise. Good to know.
0
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:52 pm to AU24
quote:
GFS model predicting 158 knot (182 mph) winds as Irma hits Florida
That is 850 mb height winds, not 10 meter.
It's also the 18z GFS, for the record.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:52 pm to Nawlens Gator
quote:
I don't see any convincing atmospheric projections causing a sharp turn to the north.
Then you're blind.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:57 pm to MrSmith
the Canadian Model (CMC) is usually one that is considered out to lunch most of the time historically speaking so i wouldn't judge it to much, the best thing to do now is just wait and see what it does after the islands in the next 24-48 hrs.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:57 pm to MrSmith
Well could be looking at Category 5 in the morning.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:57 pm to MrSmith
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:59 pm to Signal Soldier
People seemed to have picked up the news now. Lowes is all sold out of water and generators near my house. Gas cans are in short supply. And we're 6 days out, and in the center of Florida.
Miami could very well be a shitshow in the next couple of days.
Miami could very well be a shitshow in the next couple of days.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:00 am to Kcoyote
Prayers sent
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:00 am to Duke
quote:
Well could be looking at Category 5 in the morning.
940 mb on the last pass confirmed.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:00 am to GeauxTigers2525
Did you reply to me by accident?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:00 am to iliveinabox
Irma has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy during her lifetime than did Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:02 am to MrSmith
dropsonde says 940 mb at the surface of the eye
AF305 dropped 4 dropsondes in the eye...
drop #2 was at 16.7 N 54.9 W
drop #6 was at 16.7 N 55.4 W
drop #8 was at 16.6 N 55.8 W
drop #10 was at 16.6 N 56.1 W
AF305 dropped 4 dropsondes in the eye...
drop #2 was at 16.7 N 54.9 W
drop #6 was at 16.7 N 55.4 W
drop #8 was at 16.6 N 55.8 W
drop #10 was at 16.6 N 56.1 W
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 12:03 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:02 am to Duke
That's a vicious storm that will leave destruction in it's path. Prayers that somehow it makes a sharp turn.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:03 am to Kcoyote
quote:
People seemed to have picked up the news now. Lowes is all sold out of water and generators near my house. Gas cans are in short supply. And we're 6 days out, and in the center of Florida.
Miami could very well be a shitshow in the next couple of days.
reminds me of the people after Katrina when Rita was coming people were going crazy for supplies the same way, gonna be an interesting few days ahead.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:05 am to Rakim
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:08 am to Rakim
Not sure where that 152 mph comes from.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:09 am to Rakim
NW eyewall has ~145 mph winds 855 ft off the ground
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:10 am to Rakim
quote:
There it is @WX_Overlord
T 7.0 140-knots
Category 5 satellite estimate from ADT (raw) GOES-16
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:10 am to slackster
quote:
Not sure where that 152 mph comes from.
that would be quite a jump in surface winds, my guess is that is probably just off the surface since it seems like quite a large jump.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:12 am to Rakim
Satellite estimate is great, but there is a plane taking readings and they haven't sniffed 140kts, even at flight level.
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