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Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:14 pm to RazorBroncs
Thank you. Had to read that like 5 times, but I think I get it now.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:16 pm to PhillipJFry
quote:
Can someone explain what trough means in relation to weather.
That low pressure system coming across the US (colored blue on the map) that creates a weakness in the high pressure ridge and can open a door for Irma to turn northeast.
Basically a high pressure ridge creates an invisible wall a hurricane can't penetrate so the cane will follow the edge of it. But a low pressure trough will break that wall and create an opening for the hurricane to turn north.
But in this model the trough pulls away before Irma could utilize the opening and the high ridge builds back up underneath it
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:17 pm to deltaland
No bueno
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:19 pm to deltaland
So if the trough lifts too soon, Irma will just continue to track west? That doesn't sound too good
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:19 pm to dkreller
so this model makes landfall in extreme south Florida and rides the west side of the state north
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:20 pm to deltaland
Question about the models...some of the spaghetti models end over one of the carribean islands, and some go all the way up to NE US, are those theoretical varying speeds of the storm? How far out is that model showing?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:21 pm to rt3
oh... and AF305 is positioning for... what I assume will be... its last pass through the eye of the storm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:21 pm to dkreller
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:22 pm to CLane33
quote:
So if the trough lifts too soon, Irma will just continue to track west? That doesn't sound too good
It will track northwest and from what I see the potential path for when it turns northward is east coast of Florida to Mississippi gulf coast. The high ridge in Mexico will keep it from tracking farther west to Louisiana/Texas.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:24 pm to RazorBroncs
That ridge is basically what's screwing the US right now too because if it wasn't as strong as it currently is it probably would've been pulled out to sea. It initially was not projected to be so strong by the computer models and pushed it much further South than originally thought.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:25 pm to rt3
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:26 pm to CLane33
quote:
So if the trough lifts too soon, Irma will just continue to track west? That doesn't sound too good
Not that simple.
There's a little piece of energy rolling down and amplifying a bit over Ark/Mo that appears to open up the door between a little high pressure over Mexico/tx/la and the big Atlantic one.
We've got three ridges, an upper low that may or may not be there, and the trough over the NE. How all this works together will determine where the door opens up for a north swing.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:27 pm to deltaland
What scares me is her forward speed has slowed.
Any slower and she misses the trough.
Any slower and she misses the trough.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:28 pm to HubbaBubba
Looks a little more west than last run.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:29 pm to HubbaBubba
Oh my god Florida is completely eaten up
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:29 pm to CptBengal
should get some new dropsonde readings soon
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:30 pm to HubbaBubba
Landfall at 888 and then ridong up FL is a nightmare scenario
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:31 pm to CptBengal
Jose just chilling not knowing which way to go for now on the GFS.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 11:31 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Landfall at 888 and then ridong up FL is a nightmare scenario
most everyone agrees it won't be near 888 at landfall
however 920, 925 would be just as devestating
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