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re: Hurricane Iota - No Más! No Más! - Gulf Finally Closed?

Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:23 pm to
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:23 pm to
I don't know why but this image makes me laugh. Everywhere supports a hurricane just about but under Louisiana we've been skllfricked so much it has sucked all the energy out of the area that waters are actually cooler.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:31 pm to
The Greeks pulling RIs all the time. Amazing.

Also my hopes seem dashed for it to die in CA but at the same time I wouldn't want to wish those mudslides on them. Guess I'll have to get back to watching models in the tropics a little closer.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:32 pm to
You think this has much possibility to get as far west as Louisiana? It seems highly unlikely especially if the fronts push through as the models keep showing. Seems up north they have a very strong cold front pushing through that might make it this far south next week.

At some point Florida is going to have to stop sitting on their porch laughing as canes just pass them by. How they've survived this hurricane season is beyond me.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 11:34 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:59 pm to
quote:

You think this has much possibility to get as far west as Louisiana?


Not really at this point. It'd either need to get trapped for a long while or catch a fast run very early to get in ahead of the front next week.

quote:

At some point Florida is going to have to stop sitting on their porch laughing as canes just pass them by. How they've survived this hurricane season is beyond me.


Pattern has just favored the northern Gulf coast with a lot of Caribbean genesis or at least scraping the islands from the MDR. Figure November should really favor Florida though with southern genesises but I figure the same about October and look what that got me.
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3100 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 12:29 am to
The 00z run of the gfs is a fine model. Clearly it has sobered up since this afternoon.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43096 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 12:59 am to

00z Euro going all out
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4619 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 6:38 am to
Did I watch this right? At the end of the run it hits the Bahamas and then starts heading backwards back across Cuba?
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
19916 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:00 am to
That euro model isn’t gonna work for me.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:28 am to


Business picked up fast with Eta.
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:31 am to
Going to be the storm that don't want to go away.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91268 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:35 am to
quote:

It'd either need to get trapped for a long while or catch a fast run very early to get in ahead of the front next week.


Both the GFS and Euro seem to be in favor of the trapping for quite a while (10+ days) at this point, but I’d imagine the odds are decent that something comes along and picks it up eventually.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91268 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:38 am to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
99899 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:42 am to
Latest GFS has it entering gulf and eventually hitting the Keys and south Florida as a 950mb storm
Posted by mightynine
Member since May 2006
1276 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:53 am to
Thought this was an interesting note in the 4 a.m. discussion:

quote:

Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area.
Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
32208 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:07 am to
the amount of rain Cuba would get would be insane in those runs. it was like 10 days almost
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21005 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:13 am to
quote:

Thought this was an interesting note in the 4 a.m. discussion:

quote:
Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area.


We've been talking about that and people are going to scream "NHC is padding the stats" if they go with a new name

The Euro has a trackable low for the entire 10 days so this would likely still be Eta.



Regardless, the land interaction will result in a much larger system than we currently are tracking.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21005 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:21 am to
quote:




Eta is bombing out and will make a run at strongest Atlantic system of 2020.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
128700 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:24 am to
Oh f that
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82705 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:35 am to
Will be at our trailer camp on the northern coast of Nicaragua due to still having no power in Grand Isle, looking to ride it out. What do you think?
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
103410 posts
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:38 am to
quote:

Eta is bombing out and will make a run at strongest Atlantic system of 2020.


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