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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:33 pm to
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178838 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:33 pm to


this = pretty bad huh?
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18406 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Potential for heavy, heavy rains and possibly hurricane force wind gusts according to the 12z GFS.





So probably without power for a week. I’ll keep everyone updated
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:34 pm to








Pick your poison.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 12:35 pm
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109160 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

Just sent my lady and kid on a flight to my in-laws home in LA


Smart
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

Too close to the Santee. The Santee used to be the second biggest outflow of water on the east coast prior to the creation of Lake Murray and Lake Moultrie. It receives the absolute majority of central NC water that isn't directed down the Pee-Dee. Not a good situation. It will crest.


In that case, Florence, SC might be a decent* spot.

*Decent in the sense that a single guy staging to move in for insurance adjustments should be reasonably safe. I wouldn't bring my family to Florence just yet.
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3484 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

You can easily avoid this in Columbia.

I'm a lowcountry boy and a Clemson fan . I try and avoid everything and anything around Columbia. In other words, I have a passing knowledge of the geography as a geologist, but when it comes to absolute location, my mind skips. Y'all bois know the area better than me.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178838 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

So probably without power for a week


that would be quite optimistic... could be complete coastal devastation.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109160 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

Wonder if a call gets made early this week on some games. Especially if some of the state is being ravaged while it happens.


With Auburn being only a couple states away from the projected landfall, it might be wise to move the game to Baton Rouge.
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30509 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

So probably without power for a week.


That's probably being optimistic
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21498 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

this = pretty bad huh?


The GFS isn't coupled to the sea surface, therefore it produces unrealistic results in situations like this. If the system approaches the Outer Banks and then does an cyclonic loop before moving inland, it would be much weaker than the 12z GFS is showing. The combo of up welling of the shallow shelf waters and interaction with land would likely cause significant weakening before the system could move back inland.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:37 pm to
Wilmington is going to be washed away if it gets feet of rain, plus storm runoff from further upstream and storm surge backing up the flow.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178838 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

The GFS isn't coupled to the sea surface, therefore it produces unrealistic results in situations like this. If the system approaches the Outer Banks and then does an cyclonic loop before moving inland, it would be much weaker than the 12z GFS is showing. The combo of up welling of the shallow shelf waters and interaction with land would likely cause significant weakening before the system could move back inland.


i was thinking the same stuff.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

With Auburn being only a couple states away from the projected landfall, it might be wise to move the game to Baton Rouge.

Auburn is garbage, but they're not Florida levels of utter trash.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:38 pm to
I would think the upwelling would be negated some by the constant flow of warm water from the gulf stream.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 12:49 pm
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3484 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

GetCocky11


Mah dude. Good maps, that what I was trying to type out, I was just too lazy too look up the drainage basins.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87965 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:39 pm to
Said this earlier but I have an old friend who lives there now. RT3 knows him too but probably doesn’t realize it. I’ve convinced him to leave either tonight or tomorrow.

RT, guy from maine. Initials BL. Same class/team as me.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 12:40 pm
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

I'm a lowcountry boy and a Clemson fan . I try and avoid everything and anything around Columbia. In other words, I have a passing knowledge of the geography as a geologist, but when it comes to absolute location, my mind skips. Y'all bois know the area better than me.


A lot of the issues with the 2015 flooding in Columbia was because of man-made, under-maintained dams that broke.

I'd avoid the area below Columbia along the Congaree River near Congaree NP; however, the Broad and Saluda rivers (which form the Congaree) are fed from western North Carolina. If the worst of the storm remains in central to eastern NC, Columbia flooding shouldn't really be an issue.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21498 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

I would thinking the upwelling would be negated some by the constant flow of warm water from the gulf stream.


Possibly some but I don't know enough about the Gulf Stream flow rates and what kind of mixing the approach of a Cat 4/5 would do to the near surface temps in the short run.
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3484 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

I'd avoid the area below Columbia along the Congaree River near Congaree NP; however, the Broad and Saluda rivers (which form the Congaree) are fed from western North Carolina. If the worst of the storm remains in central to eastern NC, Columbia flooding shouldn't really be an issue.


Good stuff. Also with Hurricane Juaquin in 2015, we got 28" of rain on the coast, had a break in the weather for 2 days, and then they opened the spillways on both dams, flooding the coast a second time. Charleston always has to pick up Columbia trash
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

Said this earlier but I have an old friend who lives there now. RT3 knows him too but probably doesn’t realize it. I’ve convinced him to leave either tonight or tomorrow.

RT, guy from maine. Initials BL. Same class/team as me.

Lavoie?
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