re: Hurricane Fiona - Moving Through the Islands and then OTS

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I remember being at a club the night before Katrina hit and we were making jokes about how BR was about to be the most populated city in the state for a few hours.

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Then we everyone arrived they said frick this shite hole take me to Texas.

Fiona took one look at Haiti and said Nope. Reminds me of the Gozilla-Haiti scene from Family Guy.

LINK

frick You, Fiona

I wish these model runs could come out sooner than six hours.

I guarantee he's beating his meat raw at the Euro.

Wishcasters will be here soon saying it will keep shifting west to louisiana

for some real fun look at the GEPS ensemble models

Jacksonville and then Pensacola

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for some real fun look at the GEPS ensemble models

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Everyone can find an ensemble member they love on that run

ropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Deep convection has been sheared more than a degree to the east of
the center for much of the day, and as a result, the low-level
center and circulation have become slightly less defined and
elongated, respectively. That said, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of 65 kt
and SFMR winds as high as 46 kt. Assuming some undersampling of
the surface winds, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. This is
in agreement with ASCAT-C data from earlier today, which showed an
area of 45-50 kt winds to the northeast of the center.

Fiona appears to have lost a little bit of latitude since earlier
this morning, but the motion remains westward, or 270 degrees at 12
kt. Track models are in good agreement during the next 2 to 3
days, showing a low- to mid-level ridge steering Fiona westward
across the Leeward Islands and over the far northeastern Caribbean
Sea through Sunday. The HWRF is the only outlier during this
period and appears to have a track too far to the north due to an
unrealistically high intensity. After day 3, there is more
divergence among the track models, with the stronger solutions
(i.e., the GFS) indicating a sharper northwestward turn toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. The weaker solutions (i.e., the
ECMWF and HMON) keep Fiona on a westward or west-northwestward
track, moving near or over Hispaniola. As a result, the 4- and
5-day forecasts are of lower-than-normal confidence, and ensembles
from the main global models suggest that the cyclone could end up
anywhere from eastern Cuba to well to the northeast of the
Bahamas by the end of the forecast period. For now, the official
track forecast is nudged southward and westward from the previous
forecast, accounting for the adjusted initial position and the
overall trend in the track guidance.

Moderate, and even possibly strong, westerly shear is likely to
continue for much of the 5-day forecast period. Given these
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast flatlines Fiona's intensity
at 50 kt for the next 60 hours, with the caveat that fluctuations
are possible related to the convective structure of the cyclone at
any time. Fiona is forecast to slow down by the 3-5 day time
frame, and the slower motion could allow for the circulation to
become more vertically stacked, even in the face of continued
shear. As a result, some gradual strengthening is indicated at the
latter part of the forecast period. Given uncertainties in how
much Fiona might interact with the islands of the Greater Antilles,
the NHC intensity forecast lies about 5-10 kt below the IVCN and
HCCA consensus aids.