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Message
1
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:55 pm to Ba Ba Boooey
Probably because we haven't had an aircraft in there in the last hour, I am betting this i stronger than 115 at the moment.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:56 pm to Duke
quote:
Hr 96. See how the Atlantic ridge has oriented more to the due E and the flow around it goes north vs west in the earlier image? That's why he's expected to turn.
Ok that sort of makes sense. Thanks for breaking it down.. given the conditions, what do you think the likelihood is that it does indeed turn hard north? 50/50?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:56 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I just don’t see (understand) how the hell this thing is supposed to turn north as much as they think it will
It helps to realize there is no such thing as momentum with hurricanes. They're basically soft as shite when it comes to steering - they're pushed around by other weather features. They don't dictate the steering environment, the environment dictates the storm.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:56 pm to The Boat
quote:
This is starting to look like it’s going to skirt off the coast
It's all about timing. The timing for the weakness and push north isn't changing. How fast Dorian gets there is.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:56 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
what do you think the likelihood is that it does indeed turn hard north? 50/50?
Much, much higher than 50/50.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:57 pm to Mr. Hangover
It's going to turn North question is when.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:57 pm to slackster
quote:
It helps to realize there is no such thing as momentum with hurricanes
Good information and completely opposite from what I thought
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:57 pm to slackster
NHC Official Track
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:57 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Probably because we haven't had an aircraft in there in the last hour, I am betting this i stronger than 115 at the moment.
The wind speed they tell us is always about 25-30 mph faster than it actually is to scare people.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:58 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
what do you think the likelihood is that it does indeed turn hard north? 50/50?
98%
The question is where he is when the steering turns him.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:58 pm to Duke
Pretty remarkable what this has become especially what it had to deal with like 3 days ago with the dry air.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:59 pm to notiger1997
Hurricane hunters must have left the stove on at the barracks:
Posted on 8/30/19 at 3:59 pm to slackster
Hurricane Gilbert (1988) was suppose to turn into the upper Texas coast mid September but was said to have been so large that it influenced its own environment and hit northern Mexico instead of of curving northwestward.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:01 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Just stop
I’m 100% correct about that
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:02 pm to slackster
Official report: Well we started seeing clouds.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:05 pm to The Boat
So, how do people prepare differently for 90 mph winds as opposed to 115? What do they gain by trying to scare people by adding 25 mph?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:06 pm to AUveritas
quote:Don't be THAT guy.
So, how do people prepare differently for 90 mph winds as opposed to 115? What do they gain by trying to scare people by adding 25 mph?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:07 pm to slackster
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