re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

The Governor of Florida just spoke and lamented the fact that many counties are already experiencing high water conditions such as Pasco, Collier, and Pinellas where water is already over many decks/piers right now. He said the biggest fear is Lake Okeechobee overtopping and the antiquated levee system. The lake is drawn down but only needs 4 feet of additional water to cause chaos.

Be nice if they used the drones to have service on normal days

You say that even after the latest thoughts might be that it curves out to sea and barely hits Florida?

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 30
Location: 25.0°N 70.7°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 115 mp

quote:

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his weather channel chick they have in Orlando has big knockers

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Picture just doesn't do them justice

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

High resolution satellite images show that Dorian's cloud pattern
has become much better organized, with a distinct eye surrounded by
a ring of very deep convection and fair upper-level outflow.
Satellite intensity estimates, both objectivs from CIMMS and
subjective from TAFB and SAB, are in good agreement with the 100-kt
winds recently measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. This is the
intensity assigned to Dorian in this advisory.

Since the upper-level environment is already becoming more favorable
for intensification and Dorian will be over high sea surface
temperatures, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification.
Dorian is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as
it moves through the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula in about 2 to 4 days.

The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building
to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a
more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge is
forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for
the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then
weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's
forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the
track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly
uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the
core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep
it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends.

Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for
poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for
the Florida coast at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where
the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their
hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation
zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 26.2N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 26.8N 76.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 78.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 27.5N 80.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR FL EAST COAST
120H 04/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

Arms look a bit chubby.

This is starting to look like it’s going to skirt off the coast and be a nothingburger like Matthew.