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Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:28 pm to NorthEndZone
Wondering how Iguana Cay is right now... or if it still exists.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:29 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Most definitely. Recall Irma just a couple of years ago. All along it was heading due West and there was a predicted turn to go right up to Miami. Then it didn't turn up until it made it to the west side Of Florida, many miles later.
I believe that storm thread was the one that gave us the infamous triangle math.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:29 pm to LegendInMyMind
Where does this storm rank in the last 10 years as far as the ones that have made landfall in the US in the wind speed and pressure categories? Which ones were stronger if any?
I'm too lazy to look it up and I'm sure some of y'all already know.
TIA
I'm too lazy to look it up and I'm sure some of y'all already know.
TIA
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:29 pm to Duke
quote:
The stall is coming though.
I dont think anyone can argue that
quote:
How about wild speculation?
Storms over Florida today may have short term weakened the upper ridge a bit and it recovered a little as they faded.
This is why I appreciate your responses
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:29 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Though he didn't mention it tonight, Levi said that any increase in speed, even 1 mph could result in a shift west of as much as 75 miles. Not sure if he was talking time-specific in Dorian's approach or not. But he made note of it.
It was time specific. They won't miss by that much unless Dorian weakens considerably.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:30 pm to Titus Pullo
quote:
Where does this storm rank in the last 10 years as far as the ones that have made landfall in the US in the wind speed and pressure categories? Which ones were stronger if any?
I'm too lazy to look it up and I'm sure some of y'all already know.
TIA
I think Michael is the only storm that was on Dorian's level at landfall.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:30 pm to slackster
TWC is reporting the beginning of a NEWC
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:32 pm to slackster
I'm not expecting to miss that much. I just thought it was an interesting note that may have impact with a nominal increase in speed.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:32 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
He's currently off of "path" of the NHC by a smidge.
Dont wanna trigger a certain individual so ill leave it at that.
, I know you love the wishcasting at Storm 2k, it's just bothersome catching up on the thread and reading the same stuff here from you. You do you, but keep the Storm2k style stuff there.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:32 pm to LSUGrrrl
I'm not going to overcomplicate this.
"The pigs are fine. See they are on this island way down here. Good night."
"The pigs are fine. See they are on this island way down here. Good night."
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:33 pm to slackster
Thanks.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:33 pm to NorthEndZone
Just had our annual neighborhood hurricane party. One of them has/had a house in Abaco. The eye went over his home.
Word is that the neighborhood is flattened.
We are trying to talk him out of flying there friday by himself. We are expecting desperate people there.
Word is that the neighborhood is flattened.
We are trying to talk him out of flying there friday by himself. We are expecting desperate people there.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:34 pm to slackster
I would rather the thread be less tiresome for those of you who can translate and provide “best guesses) than us but most here don’t read that info there. I might go check it out some time.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:34 pm to slackster
And you know....now is the time that Dorian may decide to take the steering wheel into his own hands.... 
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:35 pm to TigerBait1971
quote:
I'm not going to overcomplicate this.
"The pigs are fine. See they are on this island way down here. Good night."
Good call, dad.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:35 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
This is why people get nervous.
Anything less that due west is good for Florida with respect to the turn.
Think about it like this - moving due west gets you the farthest west possible before the turn. Moving 265 or 275 gains less longitude over time, so the turn has an even better chance of missing Florida.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:37 pm to LSUGrrrl
Do hurricanes have any effect on fish? Like has anyone ever checked on what tagged sharks of other fish do when a hurricane is in their vicinity
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:37 pm to slackster
quote:
Think about it like this - moving due west gets you the farthest west possible before the turn. Moving 265 or 275 gains less longitude over time, so the turn has an even better chance of missing Florida.
That makes sense. Thanks
Posted on 9/1/19 at 10:37 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
I think I understand the fundamentals of what’s going to drive that turn but if that 2nd ridge(?) comes in weaker than expected, the north turn might be too late to avoid Florida landfall, correct? I think this is the fear.
Ok, very basically, he stalls because he gets stuck between two highs of similar strength for steering Dorian.
Red east and reds west, put a mean flow across Dorian of next to nothing. So he comes to a stop.
What causes the north turn and eventually NE turn?
As the blue section up north moves across, it weakens the western ridge just a little bit and the eastern ridge strengthens a some. It's orientation has the flow pushing basically due north and Dorian follows it. As the blues continue east, the eastern ridge slides a little south and gets oriented in a way that would push more NE which gets Dorian to really feel that trough and swing off the US coast to the NE.
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